Virginia vs. Boise State Pick
According to oddsmakers at Bovada.lv, Boise State is favored at home in this one, as the Broncos are getting odds of -12.5 points against the Cavaliers. The over/under total for the contest has been set at 51.5 points. These two last met in the 2015 season with Boise State picking up a 56-14 win over Virginia as a 1-point underdog. Tonight’s game takes place from Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho and will air live on ESPN2.
Virginia has started this season 2-1 overall and 1-2 against the spread. The Cavs failed to cover in their one game as an underdog, a 34-17 loss to Indiana. UVA averages 27.7 points per game right now while allowing 20.7 per game on defense. The Cavs have a great defense, allowing only 327.3 yards per game. However, the run defense is giving up 162 yards per contest. On offense, Virginia is relying on the pass game, as it is putting up 325.3 yard per game. Kurt Benkert has thrown for 976 yards and seven touchdowns with an interception. Three different receivers have over 200 yards as well while Jordan Ellis is the leading rusher with 219 yards and three scores.
Boise State has started the season 2-1 with the lone loss being on the road and in OT. The Broncos are 2-1 against the spread, failing to cover in last week’s win over New Mexico as a 16-point favorite. The Broncos are averaging 32 points per game on offense this season while giving up 24.7 points per game on defense. Despite the good scoring numbers, the Broncos are averaging just 340.7 yards per game on offense. Brett Rypien sat out last week’s game against Troy due to his head injury, but is expected to play tonight. Montell Cozart has thrown for 348 yards and five touchdowns in his place while also rushing for 179 yards and two scores. Cedrick Wilson is the team’s leading receiver with 16 catches for 276 yards and two touchdowns. Defensively, Boise is strong against the run, allowing just 98.7 per game.
Virginia hasn’t been a great team in general over the years, so expecting a big showing on the road is hard to buy into. The Cavs are 1-3-1ATS in their last five road games and 0-5 ATS in their last five games against Mountain West opponents. Boise State doesn’t have great trends either, but the Broncos are at home and are getting healthy. Virginia will pose a challenge for the Boise State offense, but I would expect the Broncos to win by at least two touchdowns against this Virginia team on most nights.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PREDICTION: BOISE STATE -12.5