Michigan St. vs. Northwestern Total Pick

Michigan State vs. Northwestern, 9/21/19 Week 4 Predictions & Preview

Will two strong defensive teams continue their trends and play in a low-scoring game when Northwestern hosts Michigan State today at Noon ET?

Game Snapshot & Odds

333 Michigan State vs. 334 Northwestern

Saturday, September 21, 2019

Noon ET – Ryan Field


Compare odds and from multiple different online sportsbooks and shop for the best lines at our new NCAAF Odds & Betting Page.

Public Betting Trends

According to the latest oddsmakers, Michigan State is favored on the road, as the Spartans are getting odds of -9 points against the Wildcats. The over/under total is listed at just 37.5 points. The public betting currently has 77 percent going on Northwestern as the home underdog. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our NCAAF Public Betting Page for updated figures on the game.

Wildcats open up Big Ten play

Northwestern opened the season with a tough 17-7 loss at Stanford, but finally was able to bounce back from the loss this past weekend with a 30-14 win over UNLV at home. The Wildcats are 1-1 overall, 0-2 against the spread and 2-0 with the under.

Like Michigan State, Northwestern has a great defense. The Wildcats are giving up just 15.5 points and 347.5 yards per game. The offense is averaging 18.5 points and 325.5 yards per game. The team lost TJ Green for the season due to an injury in the opener and Hunter Johnson has taken over. He has thrown for 220 yards with one TD and three interceptions while rushing for 68 yards and a score. Drake Anderson is the team’s leading rusher with just 146 yards and a touchdown.

Spartans let one get away

Michigan State let one get away from them on Saturday when the Spartans suffered a 10-7 loss to Arizona State at home. MSU is now 2-1 on the season, 1-2 against the spread and 2-1 with the under.

The Spartans have one of the best defenses in the nation, allowing just 11.3 points and 216 yards per game, but their offense has let the defense down. MSU averages 28.7 points and 429.7 yards per game this year, but most of that came against Western Michigan. MSU is beat up on the offensive line, which has hurt the run game. Elijah Collins is leading the ground attack with 281 yards and a touchdown, but he has been the only productive back. Brian Lewerke has thrown for 797 yards and four touchdowns while rushing for 60 yards as well. Darrell Stewart Jr. has been his primary receiver with 25 catches for 362 yards and a touchdown. Kenny Willekes is leading the MSU defense with 19 tackles, four sacks and two fumble recoveries.

College Football Betting Trends


The Wildcats are 5-1 with the under in their last six conference games and 42-13-1 with the under in their last 56 home games.

Michigan State

Michigan State has hit the under in 10 of its last 11 overall and in eight of their last nine games on grass.


The total is very low here, but I think it hits. Both teams are very prideful on their defense and Northwestern has always been able to play Michigan State tough. The Spartans are struggling with their run game and pass blocking right now and it showed last week at home against Arizona State. It’s not likely to get a lot better against this physical Northwestern team in Evanston. The MSU defense is one of the best in the nation, so I don’t expect the Wildcats to be moving the ball much either.

College Football Week 4 Prediction: Michigan State/Northwestern Under 37.5

Related: Michigan State vs. Northwestern Spread Prediction

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