Penn State vs. Illinois Prediction
Is No. 10 Penn State giving up too many points when it hits the road tonight to face Illinois in Big Ten play at 9PM ET?
Game Snapshot & Odds
Friday, September 21, 2018
9PM ET – Memorial Stadium
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Public Betting Trends
According to oddsmakers at BetNow.eu, Penn State is the clear favorite on the road, as the Nittany Lions are getting odds of -27.5 points against Illinois. The over/under total for the game is listed at 61 points. The public betting for this game currently has 54 percent backing Penn State on the road. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our College Football Public Betting Page for updated figures on the game.
Illinois coming off loss
Illinois has had three games at home and the Illini started with two wins, but are coming off a 25-19 loss to South Florida last weekend. Illinois managed to cover the spread in last week’s loss and is 2-1 against the spread on the year. They have hit the under in all three games this season thus far.
The Illini have struggled on defense in terms of yards. While giving up just 21 points per contest, they are allowing 480 yards per game. That includes 325.3 passing yards per game. On offense, Illinois is putting up 28 points and 408.3 yards per contest. Quarterback AJ Bush has thrown for 223 yards but is dealing with a hamstring injury and is questionable to play tonight. M.J. Rivers II has thrown for 273 yards and two touchdowns and will take Bush’s place if he is unable to go. Mike Epstein and Reggie Corbin have combine for 491 rushing yards and five touchdowns while Bush has 142 rushing yards.
Penn State surging
After a scare in the season opener against Appalachian State, Penn State has defeated Pitt and Kent State by a combined score of 114-16 the last two weeks. The Nittany Lions are 2-1 against the spread this year while hitting the over in all three games. They have covered the spread in four of their last five as a program.
Penn State has been unstoppable on offense this year, averaging 53 points and 489 yards per game. Trace McSorley has thrown for 603 yards and five touchdowns while rushing for 143 yards and six scores. Miles Sanders has added 295 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Defensively, Penn State is giving up just 18 points and 324 yards per game. Their pass defense is giving up just 175 yards per contest.
College Football Betting Trends
The Illini have failed to cover in four of their last five at home against a team with a winning road record and in four straight Friday games.
Penn State is 21-5-1 against the spread in their last 27 games following a win and 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a cover.
Penn State rolled past Pitt two weeks ago on the road and I don’t think the Illini are better than the Panthers. Lovie Smith just doesn’t have the team to make this game competitive. Penn State’s offense should start fast and score frequently while the defense keeps Illinois from being able to answer often. The Illini also may not be at 100 percent on offense, so this game could get out of hand quickly.
College Football Prediction: Penn State -27.5