USC vs. Alabama Pick

CFB Week 1 Picks: USC Trojans vs. Alabama Crimson Tide 9/3/16

Will Alabama roll and cover as a double-digit favorite tonight when it takes on USC at AT&T Stadium at 8:00PM ET?

According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Crimson Tide is a 12-point favorite versus the Trojans tonight, while the over/under currently sits at 52.5 points. Both the point spread and total have moved off the original numbers posted by oddsmakers, as Alabama has gone from a 10-point favorite to a 12-point fave, and the over/under has dropped from 54 down to 52.5.

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The Trojans were a mixed bag for bettors in 2015, covering in six games but failing to win at the betting window in eight other opportunities. USC was a bad bet last season specifically as an underdog, failing to cover in any of the three games when receiving plus points and losing by an average margin of 16.3 points per game in those situations. As a road team, USC was also 2-3 against the spread.

Despite facing some relatively high point spreads, Alabama managed to cover in eight of its 15 games a year ago, winning by an average margin of 19.9 points per contest. As a favorite, the Crimson Tide was 7-7 at the betting window and was also 3-3 against the spread in non-conference games. (Here's why this game should fall under for bettors.)

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OUR PICK: Alabama is once again starting over at quarterback but that hasn't hurt Nick Saban's squad in recent years. The Tide went to the playoffs two years ago with Blake Sims under center for the first time in his career, and won the national championship last season with Jake Coker starting for the first time on a full-time basis. No matter which signal-caller winds up starting for 'Bama, he will have Calvin Ridley, O.J. Howard and Bo Scarbrough at his disposal. But will the Tide cover tonight? Alabama hasn't been a very good play in non-conference games, going 3-11-1 against the spread in those situations. The Tide is also 3-9 against the spread in its last 12 September games, whereas the Trojans are 4-1 against the number in their last five games in the month of September.

 

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 1 PICK: USC TROJANS +12

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