App State vs. Penn St. Prediction
Will No. 10 Penn State have any trouble covering a lofty spread when the Nittany Lions play host to Appalachian State this afternoon at 3:30PM ET?
Game Snapshot & Odds
Saturday, September 1, 2018
3:30PM ET – Beaver Stadium
TV: Big Ten Network
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Public Betting Trends
According to oddsmakers at BetNow.eu, Penn State is the favorite in this game, as the Nittany Lions are getting odds of -24 points against Appalachian State. The over/under total has been set at 54 points. The public betting for this game currently has 73 percent going on Penn State at home. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our College Football Public Betting Page for updated figures on the game.
Penn State to ride McSorley?
It was another big season for Penn State in 2017, as the Nittany Lions recorded 11 wins with losses to Michigan State and Ohio State by a combined four points. Penn State was 8-4-1 against the spread and 7-6 with the over in 2017. This year’s team has a lot of promise for the season, but has to replace one of its all-time greats.
The Nittany Lions had a great offense and defense last season. They averaged 41.1 points per game last season to be among the best offenses in the country. They also allowed just 16.5 points per contest, which was the fewest in the Big Ten East. Penn State lost its top player from last year in Saquon Barkley, who did a little bit of everything. However, Trace McSorley is back under center after throwing for 3,570 yards and 28 touchdowns a year ago. He also rushed for just under 500 yards. He will need to find some new targets this year, as he loses three of his top four receivers that combined for 21 touchdown receptions. It’s unclear if Penn State will adjust its offense to make McSorley more of the focal point without a clear, established back.
Appalachian State riding momentum
Appalachian State closed out the 2017 season a high note, winning four straight – which included a 34-0 bowl win over Toledo. The Mountaineers finished with a 9-4 record straight up. They were just 6-7 against the spread and 7-6 with the under.
App State had a great balance of offense and defense last year, averaging 33.5 points per game on offense while allowing just 20.2 per game. The Mountaineers have some questions coming into the year after losing starting QB Taylor Lamb, who threw for 2,737 yards and 27 touchdowns while rushing for another 584 yards. They should still have a strong ground attack behind Jalin Moore, who rushed for 1,037 yards and 12 touchdowns last year. They also return Marcus Williams Jr., who rushed for 500 yards.
College Football Betting Trends
The Nittany Lions are 10-2-2 against the spread in their last 14 home games and 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games overall.
Appalachian State has covered the spread in its last four games overall, but is just 2-5 ATS in its last 7 road games.
Appalachian State is no stranger to upsets and I would definitely consider taking them with the points if not for having to replace their starting quarterback. It’s tough to make your first start on the road in a place like Happy Valley. Penn State has the experienced quarterback and should be able to establish some new backs and receivers against a nervous App State defense. I like the PSU defense to really shine in this one and allow the Nittany Lions to cover.
College Football Prediction: Penn State -24