Texas State vs. Texas A&M Prediction
Can No. 12 Texas A&M handle being a heavy favorite at home when it opens up the season against Texas State on Thursday at 8:30PM ET?
Game Snapshot & Odds
139 Texas State vs. 140 Texas A&M
Thursday, August 29, 2019
8:30PM ET – Kyle Field
TV: SEC Network
Public Betting Trends
According to the latest oddsmakers, Texas A&M is the clear favorite in this game, as the Aggies are getting odds of -33.5 points against Texas State. The over/under total is listed at 57.5 points. The public betting currently has 61 percent going on Texas A&M as the home favorite.
State starts new era
Texas State is coming into a new era in its program as Jake Spavital takes over the program. The Bobcats are coming off a 3-9 record in 2018 and a 1-7 mark in the Sun Belt Conference. Texas State went 6-5-1 against the spread and posted an 8-4 mark with the under.
The Bobcats had one of the worst offenses in the nation last year, averaging just 19.8 points and 330.3 yards per game. The offense has just four starters back this year. Tyler Vitt will lead the offense after seeing split time in 2018. He threw for 1,159 yards and seven touchdowns last year, but also had 10 interceptions. The Bobcats have to replace a lot in the backfield and at receiver. Defensively, Texas State gave up 27.7 points and 383.9 yards per game. Their run defense gave up 182.3 yards per contest.
Aggies looking to build
Texas A&M had a solid first year under new coach Jimbo Fisher in 2018, going 9-4 on the season with a 5-3 record in the SEC. The Aggies were also 9-4 against the spread while posting a 7-6 record with the under.
The Aggies had a great offense in 2018, averaging 36 points and 471.6 yards per game. They had a great rushing attack behind now-NFL star Trayveon Williams, who rushed for 1,760 yards. Quarterback Kellen Mond threw for 3,107 yards and 24 touchdowns while rushing for 474 yards and seven scores. He is back to lead the offense this season. Defensively, Texas A&M gave up 25.3 points and 348.4 yards per game last season. Their run defense ranked third nationally, allowing only 95.2 yards per contest.
College Football Betting Trends
The Bobcats are 4-0-1 against the spread in their last five road games and they have covered in four straight games on grass.
The Aggies have covered the spread in eight straight non-conference games and nine of their last 11 home games.
Texas A&M is being asked to cover a big spread on Thursday, but I think they can do it. Texas State is working in a new coaching staff and coming in with a pretty weak roster. I think the Bobcats will struggle to move the ball against a Texas A&M team that has a new-found emphasis on defense under Jimbo. The Aggies should move the ball just find under Mond, who is a dual-threat quarterback. They should also have a plethora of running backs to work with as well.
College Football Week 1 Prediction: Texas A&M -33.5