LSU Win Total Prediction
The LSU Tigers have been a force to be dealt with the in SEC for many years. Are the Tigers set to get to 10 wins in the 2019 regular season?
Ed Orgeron enters his third season with LSU, having gone 9-4 in 2017 and 10-3 in 2018. Last season included a win in the Fiesta Bowl to get to the 10 wins. The Tigers haven’t actually won 10 games in a regular season since 2012. According to oddsmakers, the Tigers are listed with an over/under of 9 wins during the regular season in 2019. The over is listed at -120, while the under is listed at +100.
The LSU offense wasn’t anything to write home about in 2018, ranking near the middle of the pack in most categories at 32.4 points and 402.1 yards per game. LSU brings back eight starters on offense this season, which could lead to an outburst in production. Joe Burrow returns at QB after throwing for 2,500 yards and 12 touchdowns with just four interceptions. The key for him will be not getting sacked. The Tigers saw their QB get sacked 33 times last year. Four starters return up front, so one would expect that protection to be better this year. Justin Jefferson is back to lead the receivers after catching 50 passes for 788 yards in 2018. In the backfield, LSU loses leading rusher Nick Brossette, but Clyde Edwards-Helaire shows a lot of promise. He rushed for 626 yards and seven touchdowns a year ago.
Like most seasons, the defense was the strength for LSU last season. The Tigers gave up just 21.8 points and 338.7 yards per game. The LSU defense has eight starters back this year as well. They lose their best player in versatile linebacker Devin White, but still have a strong pair of linebackers returning in Jacob Phillips and Michael Divinity Jr. The pass rush up front wasn’t great, as Divinity and safety Grant Delpit led the team in sacks with five each, so LSU will look to get more from its front three this year. In the secondary, Delpit will lead that unit after picking up five interceptions and 73 tackles in 2018.
LSU has some cake non-conference home games with Georgia Southern, Northwestern State and Utah State, but the Tigers will actually travel to Texas in Week 2. SEC home games include Florida, Auburn, Arkansas and Texas A&M. Road trips will be made to Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Alabama and Ole Miss.
Getting to 10 wins is no small task and I’m sure many of you would be surprised to see the Tigers haven’t done that in the regular season since 2012. LSU has had some good teams with some great talent since that time and not been able to get the job done. This year, I think it will be a problem again. LSU has to travel to Bama and Texas for a pair of tough road games while also facing an improving Florida team at home. That doesn’t even factor in the week-to-week SEC grind. LSU would have to not have any letdowns this year to get to 10 wins and the Tigers haven’t proven they can do that. Orgeron is a great character, but I don’t see him as a coach that will lead the program to national titles. While I’d say 9 wins is where they should be, I trust 8 wins more than I do 10.
College Football Prediction: LSU Under 9 Wins +100