Alabama vs. Georgia Prediction

National Championship Predictions: Will Alabama cover vs. Georgia? 1/8/18

Will the Alabama Crimson Tide cover as a small favorite tonight when they take on the Georgia Bulldogs in the College Football Playoff National Championship?

ODDSMAKERS LIKE: Alabama. According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Crimson Tide is a 4-point favorite to beat Georgia, which opened as a 4.5-point underdog. As for the total, the number hit the board at 46 but has dropped slightly to 45.5.

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THE PUBLIC LIKES: Alabama. As of Monday afternoon, 65% of betting tickets are on the Crimson Tide and 64% of the money is also on 'Bama to cover the point spread. As for the total, 54% of the betting tickets and 60% of the money is on the under.

HISTORICAL TRENDS LIKE: The underdog and the over. In the last four meetings between these two teams, the underdog is a perfect 4-0 against the spread. In the last six meetings in this series, the over has cashed five times.

WHO WE LIKE: Alabama. Nick Chubb, Sony Michel and D'Andre Swift will be a three-headed monster that the Crimson Tide will be forced to deal with tonight but 'Bama does an incredible job setting the edge. The Tide's front seven is talented, athletic, and can often be an impenetrable force, even though the Tide will be without linebackers Shaun Dion Hamilton (knee, doubtful) and Anfernee Jennings (knee, out).

The other factor that will come into play tonight is the fact that the Bulldogs were on the field for 81 snaps versus Baker Mayfield and Oklahoma a week ago. They essentially played an extra quarter because the game went into overtime so at some point I expect fatigue to become a factor. Georgia will be running on adrenaline in the first half but once that wears off, I expect this Alabama running game to wear down the Bulldogs in the second half.

The Crimson Tide is 5-1 against the spread in its last six neutral site games while the Bulldogs are just 4-11 at the betting window in their last 15 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

 

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME PREDICTION: ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE -4

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