Kansas State vs. Arkansas Bowl Pick
In a matchup that many expect to be one-sided, Arkansas will take on Kansas State in the AutoZone Liberty Bowl today at 3:20PM ET.
With just over 70% of college football bettors backing Arkansas, oddsmakers from online sports book BetDSI currently list the Razorbacks as 12.5-point favorites for today's bowl matchup. The total, meanwhile, sits at 56 points after the number opened at 59.
Kansas State had to win its final three games just to reach .500 and it did just that, winning three consecutive contests to close out the regular season at 6-6. And while the Wildcats also went 6-6 against the spread this year, the Razorbacks finished 7-5 overall and 7-5 at the betting window.
Arkansas has a huge talent advantage on both sides of the ball, which is why many feel as though the Razorbacks will run away with this one. Plus, with how dominant the SEC has been this bowl season, most bettors won't hesitate to lay the 12.5 points assuming that Arkansas will set a two-touchdown pace from the onset and roll to an easy win.
But something doesn't feel right about this one. It's too easy. Everything points to the Razorbacks, who have become a rather significant public play. Kansas State has questions at quarterback and is an average team from the Big 12 going against an Arkansas program that overcame early-season trouble to finish the season on a 5-1 roll. Why not take the Razorbacks?
One reason is Bill Snyder. Over the past five seasons, the Wildcats are 19-9 (68%) against the spread as an underdog under Snyder, losing by an average margin of just -4.9 in those games. Kansas State showed up in big games this year too, covering as a 7-point underdog versus Oklahoma State, as an 8.5-point underdog versus TCU, as a 17-point underdog versus Baylor, and as a 6.5-point dog versus West Virginia.
Granted, the Wildcats didn't fare well against Oklahoma (55-0) or Texas Tech (59-44), but Kansas State is usually motivated under Snyder, who should have his program prepared today.
LIBTERY BOWL FREE PICK: KANSAS STATE WILDCATS +12.5