Michigan vs. Florida Citrus Bowl Pick

Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl Michigan vs. Florida Picks & Predictions

Plenty of public bettors are backing Michigan in the New Year's Day Citrus Bowl today at 1:00PM ET but is the value with underdog Florida?

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Oddsmakers from online sports book BetDSI currently list the Wolverines as a 4.5-point favorite over the Gators in today's bowl game in Orlando, while the over/under currently sits at 40.5 points. Michigan has bounced back and forth between being a 4 and a 4.5-point favorite the past few weeks, while the total was bet down from the opening number of 41.

The Gators finished their regular season with a 10-3 record and went 8-5 against the spread, while the Wolverines were 9-3 overall and 6-6 against the number this season. Of the wagers placed on today's game, 65% of college football public bettors are backing Michigan -4.5.

The Pick

It's not surprising to see the majority of public bettors fading the Gators today. Florida was horrific this season offensively, ranking 110th in the nation in total yards per game (339.7) and 98th in points per contest (24.5). Plus, after the Gators burned plenty of Alabama backers with a back-door cover in the SEC title game, perhaps bettors are seeking a measure of revenge on UF today.

But 4.5 points is a lot to hand a team that also finished eighth in the country in points allowed (16.5) and was sixth in yards allowed (295.4) per game. Florida's offense is highly inefficient, but defensively it'll hold Michigan in check. Wolverines quarterback Jake Rudock suffered a shoulder injury in the team's loss to Ohio State and while he'll play today, how effective will he be against Florida's talented defense, which is excellent at all three levels?

Take the points in a game that should be close throughout.

CITRUS BOWL FREE PICK: FLORIDA GATORS +4.5

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