Houston vs. Virginia Prediction & Odds

Houston vs. Virginia 12/17/22 Betting Prediction, Odds, & Trends

Number five Houston heads to Charlottesville to face #2 Virginia at 2:00 PM ET Saturday afternoon. Can the Cavaliers cover the 3.5-point spread as home underdogs?

Houston is 10-1 on the year with their best wins coming over Oregon and St. Mary’s. Their only loss came against Alabama on December 10th. The Cougars are 7-4 against the spread this season. Virginia is 8-0 this season with their best wins coming over Baylor and Illinois. They will look to remain undefeated on Saturday. The Cavaliers are 3-5 against the spread this year.

Game Matchup and Betting Odds

625 Houston Cougars (-3.5) vs. 626 Virginia Cavaliers (+3.5); O/U 114

2:00 PM ET, Saturday, December 17, 2022

John Paul Jones Arena, Charlottesville, VA

Houston vs. Virginia Public Betting Information

Our CBB Public Betting Information page indicates that the public favors the Cavaliers in this contest. Our public betting data illustrates that 91% of public bets are on Virginia +3.5. Do note that these numbers are subject to change and could be different once tipoff rolls around, so be sure to check the link so you’re receiving the most up-to-date public betting data.

Houston Game Notes

Houston’s leading scorer is senior guard Marcus Sasser. Sasser is averaging 16.2 points per game and has taken 43 more shots than anyone else on the team. He’s only shooting 41.9% from the field and 30.6% from deep this year, but he’s more of a volume scorer than an efficiency whiz. Marcus Sasser makes up one-third of the Cougars’ skilled backcourt.

6’1” junior guard Jamal Shead leads the Cougars in minutes played with 31.2 per game and is doling out the most assists on the squad with 5.7 per contest. What’s more, Shead is leading Houston in steals as well, with 2.4 per game. Houston will need Jamal Shead’s passing and defense to win and cover this road contest on Saturday. 

Virginia Game Notes

Cavaliers’ junior guard Reece Beekman suffered a hamstring injury last weekend and is listed as doubtful for Saturday’s game against Houston. For the season Beekman is averaging 10 points and 4.6 assists per game for the Cavaliers. He is one of four Virginia players averaging double figures in scoring so far this year.

Another one of those double-figure scorers is senior forward Jayden Gardner. The 6’6” Wake Forest, North Carolina native is averaging 11.6 points per game and 6.4 rebounds per game on the year for the Cavaliers. Jayden Gardner doesn’t shoot threes but hasn’t had to as he’s shooting an efficient 53% from the field this year. He’ll likely have to use his rebounding and athleticism to their fullest potential if Virginia is going to cover this contest.  

Houston vs. Virginia CBB Betting Trends

Houston is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Saturday games.

Virginia is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games against teams with a road winning percentage over .600.

The under is 7-1 in Houston’s last 8 games following an outright win. 

The under is 4-0 in Virginia’s last 4 home games.

Houston vs. Virginia CBB Prediction:

Houston and Virginia both play at a very slow pace. They’re both in the bottom 16 in the country in adjusted tempo, per Kenpom.com. The thing is, Virginia has been playing that style better and for longer. Cavaliers head coach Tony Bennett has been at the helm since 2009 and he has a record of 324-117 at Virginia, which calculates out to a .735 winning percentage. He’s won 5 ACC regular season championships and a national championship to boot. I think Houston’s Kelvin Sampson is a great recruiter and a good coach, but he’s a notch below Virginia’s Tony Bennett when it comes to gameday strategy. I think Virginia covers the number at home in a low-scoring slugfest.


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