Iowa vs. Michigan State Prediction
Is No. 9 Michigan State giving up too many points at home when the Spartans play host to No. 14 Iowa tonight at 6:30PM ET in Big Ten play?
Game Snapshot & Odds
515 Iowa at 516 Michigan State
Monday, December 3, 2018
6:30PM ET – Breslin Center
Public Betting Trends
According to oddsmakers at BetNow.eu, Michigan State is the clear favorite in this game, as the Spartans are getting odds of -10.5 points against Iowa. The over/under total for the game is currently listed at 156.5 points. The public betting currently has 51 percent going on Michigan State as the favorite at home.
Hawkeyes drop Big Ten opener
After a 6-0 start to the season, the Hawkeyes suffered a 72-66 loss at home to Wisconsin this past weekend to start Big Ten play. Iowa is 6-1 on the season, 2-5 against the spread and 4-3 with the under. Iowa has failed to cover in its last three games.
Iowa is averaging 82.6 points per game this year, but not much of an outside shooting team. The Hawkeyes are shooting just 32.7 percent from the arc to start the year, but rank 20th in the nation in free-throw shooting at 77.3 percent. Defensively, they are giving up 72 points per game, but holding opponents to just 31 percent shooting from the arc. Tyler Cook has been leading Iowa this year with 15.4 points and 8.1 rebounds per game while Luka Garza is adding 13.9 points and 4.3 rebounds per contest.
Spartans bounce back
Following the OT loss at Louisville, Michigan State bounced back this weekend by picking up a 78-67 win at Rutgers to start conference play. MSU is now 6-2 on the season, 5-3 against the spread and 4-4 with the over/under total. The Spartans have covered in four of their last five.
MSU has been shooting the ball well from the arc this year, posting a 41.5 percent success rate from 3-point land. The Spartans average 86.9 points per game and pull down 44.1 rebounds per game. All three stats rank top-20 in the nation right now. Defensively, MSU is holding opponents to just 37.3 points per game while giving up only 28.1 rebounds per contest. Cassius Winston is leading the way with 17.9 points and 7.1 assists per game while Joshua Langford is adding 17.5 points per game. Senior Matt McQuaid is questionable for today with a thigh injury. He has missed the last two games.
College Basketball Betting Trends
Iowa is 8-22-1 against the spread in its last 31 road games and 1-4 ATS in its last five games following a loss.
Michigan State has covered the spread in six straight Monday games, but is just 3-8-2 ATS in its last 13 Big Ten contests.
The Spartans are hard to stop when they are hitting their outside shots, but they still struggle with turnovers. Without a lot of consistent inside scoring, MSU has to hit those 3-pointers. In a game likes this, I expect Iowa to defend the arc well. The Hawkeyes have done a good job of that so far and are a scrappy program. They will know how to defend MSU and keep this game competitive. The Hawkeyes have covered in tree of their last four against MSU and I see it again today.
College Basketball Prediction: Iowa +10.5