Over-valued NCAA Tournament teams

2019 NCAA Tournament: Three favorites to avoid in March Madness 7/18/18

When placing your bets on potential 2019 NCAA Tournament champions, be sure to stay away from a few teams that we think won’t be able to finish the job.

According to oddsmakers, Duke is the favorite to win it all next season, as the Blue Devils have 6/1 odds. Other short odds to win are Kentucky (7/1), Gonzaga (8/1) and Villanova (8/1).

Kentucky 7/1

The Wildcats will once again be relying heavily on their recruiting class, which isn’t uncommon. Quade Green is the only double-digit scorer returning to the team. They did land a big grad transfer in Reid Travis, who was a standout for Stanford, but I don’t like the Wildcats being able to best the rest of the country. Their recruiting class is great, but we saw the flaws of relying so heavily on freshmen all the time last season when Kentucky struggled in the SEC and got bounced in the second week of the NCAA Tournament. As great of a recruiter as John Calipari is, he has failed to reach the Final Four the last three seasons with arguably better teams.

Kansas 17/2

It’s understandable that Kansas would be among the short odds to win the national championship next season. The Jayhawks have some strong returning talent in Udoka Azubuike and Lagerald Vick, as well as some highly-touted recruits in Quentin Grimes, Devon Dotson and David McCormack. The problem is, I don’t believe in Bill Self to get the job done. Kansas did make the Final Four this year, but they have far too many March shortcomings and have just one title in Self’s 15 years with the program.

Virginia 12/1

If Virginia wasn’t going to make it to the championship last season, it’s hard for me to see it happen ever. The Cavs were unfortunate to be the first No. 1 seed to lose to a No. 16 seed. While that could motivate most programs, and probably will to a degree for the Cavs, I just don’t see their style of play ever leading to a national title. UVA is all about defense and it has led them to a lot of ACC success under Tony Bennett, but eventually the Cavs will hit a hot team in March Madness and fall. It was clear when UMBC beat them by 20 points this year. Save your money and avoid Virginia.

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