What We Learned from NCAA Title Game
The 2018 NCAA Men’s College Basketball Tournament ended with barely a whimper. Villanova absolutely dominated the Michigan Wolverines 79 to 62.
Michigan had no answer for Villanova’s awesomeness.
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Did bookies and bettors learn anything from the Wildcats routing the Wolverines? Yep, a few things.
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1. The public isn’t always wrong
This is the biggest lesson for both online bookies and bettors. Most of the time, the sharps, and bookies, go against the public. The reason is because the public tends to over bet favorites.
At first, it looked like this is what might happen in the NCAA Men’s College Basketball Championship game.
As soon as the line was set, Villanova -6.5, the public pounded the Wildcats up to -7. The sharps, over 60%, were on Michigan.
Villanova easily covered the -7-spread. The public, casual bettors, had it right in the NCAA Men’s College Basketball Championship.
2. Whom a team in the final beats to get to that point means something.
The Big Ten was supposed to be a decent college basketball conference this year. Both Purdue and Michigan State were ranked in the Top 5 at one point.
However, Michigan was a 5-seed in the Big Ten Conference Tournament.
Michigan won the Big Ten Conference Tournament and then beat Montana, Houston, Texas A&M, Florida State, and Loyola-Chicago in the NCAA Tournament.
Villanova was a 1-seed in the Big East Tournament. Villanova won the Big East Tournament. They beat Radford, Alabama, West Virginia, Texas Tech, and Kansas in the NCAA Tournament.
West Virginia, Texas Tech, and Kansas are the top 3 teams in the Big 12, arguably the best college basketball conference this season.
Nova was destined to rout Michigan in the NCAA Final Four Championship because they battled the much better team to get to the championship game.
3. In the College Basketball Final, hot teams against the spread are hot teams against the spread
Villanova entered the final having gone 5 and 0 against the spread. That includes covering -11 versus Alabama, -5 versus West Virginia, -6 versus Texas Tech, and -5 versus Kansas.
The Wildcats covered in every single NCAA College Basketball Tournament game as a favorite.
Michigan entered the final on a 13-game winning streak. Against the spread, the Wolverines were 10-2-1 against the spread.
In the NCAA Tournament, the Wolverines were 3-1-1 against the spread going into the championship game.
The hotter team against the spread came out on top. That was the Villanova Wildcats. The lesson? Teams that are hotter ATS are usually better bets in the NCAA Men’s College Basketball Tournament.
The overall lesson for online bookies is to always use their layoff accounts in the college basketball championship game.
Because the public had it right, there was no reason to go against the public when Villanova squashed Michigan.
Also, why fight against a hot ATS team?
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