Kentucky vs. UNC Total Pick

Elite 8 Predictions: Will Kentucky and North Carolina hit the over? 3/26/17

Will the South Regional Final between North Carolina and Kentucky be another high-scoring game? Here’s our take on the total.

According to oddsmakers at BetDSI, North Carolina is favored in this game, as the Tar Heels are getting odds of -2.5 points against Kentucky. The over/under total is listed at 159 points. These two met back on Dec. 17 with Kentucky getting a 103-100 win. This game takes place in the South Region and will air on CBS from FedEx Forum in Memphis, Tennessee.

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North Carolina improved to 30-7 on the season after beating Butler 92-80 in the Sweet 16. The Tar Heels hit the over in the win and they are 20-14-1 with the under on the season. Despite hitting the under so much, the Tar Heels are 4-2 with the over in their last six games. UNC averages 84.7 points per game on offense while allowing 70.8 on defense this season. Over its last five games, the Heels are putting up 85.6 per game on offense while giving up 71 on defense.

Kentucky improved to 32-5 on the season with an 86-75 win over UCLA on Friday night. The Wildcats hit the under in the win and they are now 20-17 with the under in this season. They have now hit the under in four straight and nine of their last 10. Kentucky averages 85.2 points per game on offense while allowing 71.4 on defense. Over its last five games, UK is putting up 78.2 on offense while giving up just 69.2 on defense.

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I like the way Kentucky’s defense is playing right now. The Wildcats really stepped up to the challenge of playing UCLA and held the Bruins to 75 points, well below their average. I think Kentucky will bring that same intensity to the floor today as an underdog against UNC. I also think Kentucky won’t be able to score as easily as they did against UCLA. UNC is a tremendous defense, but the Tar Heels will put in a little more effort than the Bruins did. I think this game looks far different than the 203-point meeting they had early in the season. Look for the under to hit today.

 

ELITE 8 PREDICTION: KENTUCKY/NORTH CAROLINA UNDER 159

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