Mississippi State vs. Louisville NIT Pick
Are the Louisville Cardinals a poor bet to cover the point spread tonight against Mississippi State in the quarterfinal of the NIT?
Tuesday, March 20, 2018
TV: ESPN, 9:00 p.m. ET
While the point spread has not moved since opening at 5 in favor of Louisville, the over/under has shifted a half-point in favor of the over. After hitting the board at 143.5, the total is now up to 144 at the majority of online sportsbooks.
PUBLIC BETTING INFORMATION
As of this writing, 67% of the betting tickets wagered at online sportsbooks are on the Cardinals to cover the small point spread. Meanwhile, the majority of betting tickets are also on the over.
Nick Weatherspoon (hip) is questionable for Mississippi State but he's the only injury worth noting on either side. In fact, there are no players listed on Louisville's injury report as of this writing.
I think Mississippi State is catching too many points here. The Bulldogs are 3-0-1 against the spread in their last four games overall, have covered six of their last seven on the road, and are 9-1 at the betting window in their last 10 games coming off an ATS win. Furthermore, they're 8-1 against the spread in their last nine games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600, are playing as well as any team in the NIT, and are receiving nearly three full baskets at tip-off tonight. I'll take the points with the team that could win outright.
NIT COLLEGE BASKETBALL PREDICTION: MISSISSPPI STATE BULLDOGS +5