New Mexico State vs. Baylor Prediction

Baylor laying too many points to New Mexico State? NCAA Predictions 3/17/17

Is Baylor laying too many points to New Mexico State today in the first round of the NCAA tournament at 12:40PM ET?

According to oddsmakers from online sports book, the Bears are 12.5-point favorites versus the Aggies after opening as a 12-point favorite. As for the total, the number hit the board at 135.5 and has been bet down to 134.5.

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The Aggies enter play having won seven of their last 10 games to improve to 28-5 on the season. They only played in five lined games this year, but did cover the spread in three of those contests. The Aggies have been to the NCAA tournament seven times since the 2006-2007 season but they're 0-6 in the tourney, covering just twice in those six games.

The Bears split their last 10 games of the season to finish 25-7 on the year. They were just 4-6 against the spread over those 10 contests but were 14-13 against the number on the season. They were one-and-done last season when they lost to Yale in the first round and were also bounced out of the Big 12 tournament after just one game this year as well.

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OUR PREDICTION: The Bears are just 4-10 against the spread in their last 14 games as a favorite, are 2-5 against the number in their last seven NCAA tournament games, and are 1-7 at the betting window in their last eight games versus Western Athletic opponents. The Aggies, meanwhile, are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games versus an opponent with a winning record. Baylor could lose the game or win by 50 points. That's how sporadic the Bears are, but I'll gladly take the points.



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