Over-Rated NCAA Favorites
Of the top seeds in the NCAA Tournament, which ones should you avoid wagering on for March Madness? Here’s three teams to stay away from.
According to oddsmakers at YouWager, Villanova is favored to win it all this year, as the Wildcats are listed with odds of 5/1 to prevail. Other short odds to win are Virginia (6/1), Duke (7/1), and Michigan State (10/1).
501 Virginia +600
This could backfire on me, because I think Virginia is as good as it has ever been this year, but the Cavaliers play a style of basketball that I don’t think can win the NCAA Tournament. UVA relies heavily on defense and slow tempo to win games. While that has led the Cavs to a number of wins over the years, they haven’t been able to reach the Final Four. Eventually in the NCAA Tournament you run into a team that gets hot from the field. The Cavs don’t have the ability to win shootouts. It’s just hard to see UVA winning six games in this field behind defense.
504 Michigan State +1000
The Spartans have a history of making runs to the Final Four, but Tom Izzo has just one NCAA Tournament title to his credit over all these years. While the Spartans won the Big Ten this season, their schedule went heavily in their favor. They only had to play most of the top teams in the conference once, and the majority of those games were at home. The Spartans lost twice to Michigan and to Ohio State. They also lost to Duke, a team it could face in the Sweet 16. Izzo is also having a spat with sophomore forward Nick Ward. There just doesn’t seem to be a good vibe with the team. They struggle with half-court offense and turn the ball over too often to beat the good teams in this tournament.
509 Cincinnati +1600
Cincinnati has had a good season and has earned the second seed, but the Bearcats are built similar to Virginia, where it relies on defense to win. While its offense is better than Virginia’s, Cincinnati plays in a weaker American Athletic Conference. Their biggest non-conference games came against Xavier and Florida and Cincy lost both of those games. When push comes to shove, I don’t see Cincinnati being able to win a series of games against power conference teams.