UNC vs. Syracuse Betting Strategy

North Carolina vs. Syracuse Betting Strategy & Predictions 2/21/18

Will North Carolina keep rolling with another victory on Wednesday night, or will Syracuse pull off the upset as a home dog? Tip-off for this ACC matchup is set for 7:00 p.m. ET.

Who Oddsmakers Like: According to oddsmakers from online sports book YouWager, the Tar Heels are currently 4-point road favorites to upend the Orange tonight in Syracuse. North Carolina opened as either a 4 or 3.5-point favorite depending on which online or Vegas sports book you viewed. As for the total, the number sits at 144 after hitting the board at 143.

Who Public Bettors Like: As of early Wednesday afternoon, public bettors are hammering the Tar Heels at what feels like a too-good-to-be-true price. As of this writing, 80% of the betting tickets wagered at online sportsbooks are on UNC to cover. The majority of the money is also on the Tar Heels, so there is no reverse line movement as of this writing.

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The Best Betting Strategy: The Tar Heels have averaged 90.0 points per game during their current five-game winning streak. They've won seven of their last 10 games and have been just as good at the betting window, covering seven times over that same 10-game span as well. As for Syracuse, the Orange are coming off a big road win against Miami and are 6-4 over their last 10 games. That said, they only covered four times over that 10-game span.

Despite UNC's recent success, I don't like this spot for Roy Williams' squad and I hate the line. When it feels too easy, take the other side…and it feels too easy to lay the two baskets with a red-hot Heels team. They've covered the spread five straight times, including against their biggest rival Duke (82-78, -1.5), at in-state rival N.C. State (96-89, -4), and most recently, at Louisville (93-76, -1).

I could see 'Cuse frustrating UNC tonight. The Tar Heels want to push the ball on offense but the Orange love to grind the pace as slow as possible. Granted, Williams and Co. seemed to figure out Syracuse's 2-3 zone a couple of years ago but I'm betting the situation tonight over the matchup. Plus, while it's early, I hate the fact that 80% of the ticket count is on the favorite…playing on the road…against a conference opponent. Smells like trouble for UNC. I'd take the point.



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