Illinois vs. Purdue Prediction
Big Ten rivals will square off Tuesday night in West Bloomfield when Purdue hosts Illinois at 7:00 p.m. ET. With the Boilermakers laying six points and the total sitting at 126.5, what’s the best play for bettors tonight in this matchup?
605 Illinois (+5.5) at 606 Purdue (-5.5); o/u 127.5
7:00 p.m. ET, January 21, 2020
Mackey Arena, West Bloomfield, IN
According to our College Basketball Public Betting Chart page, 67% of betting tickets at online sportsbooks are currently on Purdue.
What They’re Saying: Illinois
The Illini (13-5, 5-2 in Big Ten Conference) get 30.3 percent of field goal attempts in transition. In its win over the Boilermakers in State Farm Center two weeks ago, this statistical category wasn't much of a factor but it likely will need to be for the Illini on the road. In the Kohl Center, Illinois got 13 fast break points and nine points off Wisconsin turnovers to escape with a 71-70 win in Madison. In its last five games inside Mackey Arena, Purdue has earned an average of 8.8 points per game off its turnovers and that four-point difference in a game between two of the lowest-scoring teams in Big Ten play is a world of difference. Dosunmu has averaged only 7.5 points per game in two matchups vs. Purdue including being held to nine last year in West Lafayette.
What They’re Saying: Purdue
It is a testament to Mackey Arena that Purdue is a 5.5 point favorite against a team that is scored 37 points against and lost by 26 to just 15 days ago. Mackey Arena is where ranked teams have come to die, however. Twice teams with a nice little ranking have come to Mackey this season. They both lost by 29 points in Purdue’s two most complete games of the season. Last season Michigan State came in at No. 5 and lost by 10. Mackey is an incredible force multiplier that is perhaps unmatched right now in all of college basketball.
College Basketball Betting Trends
The Fighting Illini are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games as an underdog and are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games coming off a win.
The Boilermakers are 8-3-1 against the number in their last 12 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400.
College Basketball Prediction
I’m not sure why the line has climbed nearly three full points from the opening number, but I like the value in the under regardless. The under is 7-3 in the Fighting Illini’s last 10 games overall and is 68-31 in their last 99 road games. The under is also 57-22 in Illinois’ last 79 games as a road underdog and has cashed in seven of the team’s last nine games as a dog. On the other side, the under is 11-5 in the Boilermakers’ last 16 games overall and is 7-3 in their last 10 games versus an opponent with a win percentage above .600.
Tuesday College Basketball Prediction: Illinois/Purdue UNDER 127.5