Texas vs. Georgia Sugar Bowl Pick

Texas Longhorns vs. Georgia Bulldogs, 1/1/19 Allstate Sugar Bowl Predictions

The Georgia Bulldogs spent Saturday night mocking the college football playoff committee on Twitter for its choice of the “best” four teams in the nation. Will the Dawgs take out their frustrations on Texas in the Allstate Sugar Bowl or will they lay an egg?

Game Snapshot

277 Texas Longhorns vs. 278 Georgia Bulldogs

8:45 p.m. ET, Tuesday, January 1, 2019

Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana

Public Betting Trends

According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetNow.eu, the Bulldogs are 11.5-point favorites to beat the Longhorns. The total, meanwhile, sits at 59 points. As of this writing, 57% of the public betting tickets wagered on this matchup are on the Bulldogs.

Texas Longhorns

Texas sophomore QB Sam Ehlinger told reporters that his shoulder is as "close to 100 percent" as it has been since the injury. Ehlinger suffered a shoulder sprain on November 19, and while he's been able to play with the injury, there have been times where it's pretty clearly affected his ability to get the football down field. There was very little doubt that he was going to play in the Sugar Bowl against Georgia, but this is a good sign he should be able to play pretty well.

Georgia Bulldogs

Georgia HC Kirby Smart told reporters that Georgia senior LB D'Andre Walker (groin) will be a game-time decision for Tuesday's Sugar Bowl against Texas. Walker (6'3/251) would be a big loss if he can't go for the Bulldogs, as he's been a stalwart of the Georgia defense over the last two years, and we know how good this unit has been since 2017. The senior has accepted an invite to the Reese's Senior Bowl, and with this not being a playoff game, he/the Bulldogs may choose to be cautious. We should know more about his status on Tuesday.

Betting Trends

Texas

The Longhorns are 13-6-2 against the spread in their last 21 games when facing an opponent with a winning record.

Georgia

The Bulldogs are a perfect 5-0 against the spread in their last five bowl games.

Prediction

If something more than pride were on the line, Georgia would likely cruise to victory. But how motivated are the Dawgs after missing out on the college football playoff? If they didn’t collapse again against Alabama in the SEC title game, they would have played three days ago and might be preparing to play in their second national championship. Instead, they spent Saturday mocking Notre Dame and the playoff committee and I wonder how focused they’ll be to beat an inferior Texas team. The Bulldogs will also be without defensive coordinator Mel Tucker, who left to take over at Colorado, as well as cornerback Deandre Baker, who decided to sit the game out as he prepares for the NFL draft.

Meanwhile, Texas coach Tom Herman is 12-2-1 against the spread as an underdog, with nine straight-up wins. One of those losses and failed covers came against Oklahoma in the Big 12 championship game but if you watched the end of that contest, the ‘Horns had a kickoff return for a touchdown called back due to a penalty and then Ehlinger threw an interception inside the red zone, both of which prevented Texas from covering. With motivation not in question with Texas, I’m taking the points.

Allstate Sugar Bowl Prediction: Texas Longhorns +11

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Top NCAAF Public Bets

#1 187 Virginia Tech  95%
#2 154 Rutgers  93%
#3 205 Missouri  93%
#4 196 Michigan  85%
#5 157 Purdue  84%
#6 184 Alabama  84%
#7 137 Florida Intl  83%
#8 181 South Carolina  82%
#9 156 Colorado  81%
#10 164 Nebraska  80%

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