Magic vs. Spurs Prediction

NBA Picks: Will the Spurs cover as double-digit faves vs. Magic? 11/29/16

Will the Spurs cover as a double-digit home favorite tonight when they host the Magic at 8:30PM ET?

According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Spurs are 13-point home favorites versus the Magic after opening as a 12-point favorite late last night. As for the total, the number hit the board at 194 but has been bet up to 195.5.

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MAGIC KEY TRENDS: The Magic are 13-3 against the spread in their last 16 games versus an opponent that has a winning percentage above .600 and are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games versus teams from the Southwest Division. That said, they have struggled to cover on the road, going 4-10 at the betting window in their last 14 games away from Orlando. The Magic have also struggled to cover overall, going just 3-9 against the number in their last 12 games.

SPURS KEY TRENDS: The Spurs have been a poor home bet of late, going 1-5 against the spread in their last six games in San Antonio. They’re also just 1-4 against the number in their last five games playing on two days of rest and are 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games versus a team with a winning percentage below .400. They’re 3-8 at the betting window in their last 11 home games versus an opponent with a losing road record as well.

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OUR PREDICTION: The underdog is 4-1 against the spread in the last five meetings between these two teams (Orlando was the dog in all five of those games) and the road team has cashed in five of the last six meetings as well. The Spurs are off to a great start at 14-3 but their average margin of victory is just 5.8. They’ve been a double-digit favorite three times this season and only covered once, a 98-79 victory over the Pelicans on October 29 as a 13.5-point home favorite. In those other two games, they beat the Heat by 4 as an 11-point home favorite on November 14 and defeated the Mavericks 96-81 as a 13.5-point home favorite on November 21. Spurs should win, but covering will be a different story tonight against the Magic.

 

TUESDAY NBA PREDICTION: ORLANDO MAGIC +13.5 

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