Spurs vs. Heat Game 6 Pick
ODDS: Oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv have installed the Heat as 6.5-point favorites over the Spurs, who currently own a three-games-to-two lead in this series. The total, meanwhile, is currently sitting at 191.5 points.
LINE MOVEMENT: The Heat opened as 7-point favorites but the line has dropped to 6.5 at most online sports books. That said, Miami is a 7-point favorite at most Vegas books, while the total has climbed from 190 to 191.5 at most books.
PUBLIC BETTING: Of the current wagers placed on tonight’s game, 51% of NBA public bettors currently favor the Heat. This information is subject to change, however, so make sure you click on the link provided to get the most updated public betting numbers.
NBA FREE PICK: Take Miami. According to latest NBA trends, the Heat are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game, 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up loss, and 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games following an ATS loss. The Spurs are also 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Miami was simply embarrassed in Game 3 and allowed the Spurs to shoot 60 percent from the field in another double-digit loss in Game 5. But they have not lost two in a row since January for a reason. They step up when they need to on both sides of the floor. They may not have been embarrassed on the scoreboard in Game 5, losing by 10, but their vaunted defense allowed Danny Green to go crazy again from three-point land, as he hit six of them and set a record for three-pointers in a series. Miami would like to avoid seeing San Antonio celebrate on their home floor as Dallas did two seasons ago. The energy from the home crowd should allow them to set the tone defensively and not allow Green and Manu Ginobili (24 points) to go off. The good news for the Heat is that Dwyane Wade has found his game, scoring 67 points in his last two games and Ray Allen is coming off a 21-point game. San Antonio made a big move in Game 5, starting Ginobili over Tiago Splitter. Expect Miami to counter with something different in Game 6, as they likely go back to Chris "Birdman" Andersen or Ray Allen over Mike Miller. And LeBron James, who is shooting just 44 percent for this series, will come up big at home.
2013 NBA FINALS FREE PICK: MIAMI HEAT -6.5