NBA Finals Game 3 Picks

Warriors vs. Celtics NBA Finals Game 3 Picks: Boston Bounces Back?

The Boston Celtics try to get back on track and defend their home court when they host the Golden State Warriors in Game 3 of the NBA Finals on Wednesday.

Just like in Game 1, the Warriors took command with a big third quarter but unlike Thursday, they didn’t collapse and prevailed 107-88. Here’s a complete breakdown for Game 3, including betting odds and free NBA picks.

Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors

Wednesday, June 8, 2022 – 09:00 PM EDT at TD Garden

The Celtics opened at -3.5 at BetOnline and the total has been set at 212.5. FiveThirtyEight has the Celtics as 7.5-point home favorites, projecting them to win 78 percent of the time. There’s a massive 4-point gap between the projections and the actual odds, should we take the home team to bounce back and cover or hammer the total?

Projected Starting Lineups and Roster

Golden State Warriors

*Notates expected starter

C: Kevon Looney*, Jonathan Kuminga

PF: Draymond Green*, Juan Toscano-Anderson, Andre Iguodala
SF: Andrew Wiggins*, Otto Porter Jr., Nemanja Bjelica

SG: Klay Thompson*, Jordan Poole, Damion Lee
PG: Stephen Curry*, Gary Payton II, Moses Moody

Boston Celtics

*Notates expected starter *

C: Robert Williams III*, Daniel Theis

PF: Al Horford*, Grant Williams, Luke Kornet
SF: Jayson Tatum*, Aaron Nesmith, Sam Hauser

SG: Jaylen Brown*, Payton Pritchard, Nik Stauskas
PG: Marcus Smart*, Derrick White

Team Leaders in the Playoffs

Golden State Warriors: 

  • Stephen Curry: 26.6 points, 6.0 assists and 5.0 rebounds

  • Klay Thompson: 19.1 points and 4.1 rebounds

  • Jordan Poole: 17.8 points and 4.3 assists

  • Andrew Wiggins: 15.8 points and 6.8 rebounds

Boston Celtics: 

  • Jayson Tatum: 26.3 points, 6.6 rebounds and 6.1 assists

  • Jaylen Brown: 22.7 points and 6.8 rebounds

  • Marcus Smart: 14.9 points, 6.0 assists and 4.4 rebounds  

Betting Trends

The Celtics are:

  • 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points

  • 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up loss

  • 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following an ATS loss

  • 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game

  • 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 games overall

  • 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game

  • 38-18-2 ATS in their last 58 games against a team with a winning straight up record

The Under is:

  • 11-2 in Golden State’s last 13 games against a team with a winning straight up record

  • 10-3 in Boston’s last 13 games against a team with a winning straight up record

  • 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Boston

  • 20-8 in the last 28 meetings

How to Bet This Game

Al Horford made the difference in Game 1 with 26 points, six rebounds and three assists on 9 of 12 shooting and 6 of 8 from 3-point range but he disappeared in Game 2, scoring just two points on 1 of 4 shooting and he didn’t even attempt a 3-point shot. While we can’t expect Horford to go off for over 20 points every night or hit 3-pointers like he’s Stephen Curry, the Celtics need way more from him at the offensive end of the court.

Horford isn’t the only one that has to show up and deliver a big performance on Wednesday. In Game 1, Horford, Marcus Smart and Derrick White combined for 65 points but they had just 16 points in Game 2 (12 of those from White). 

The Boston Celtics know that Tatum and Brown will always make plays, even if they struggle with their shot but the Golden State Warriors have weapons on weapons, they won’t win Game 3 unless other players step up offensively, especially Horford and Smart. Al Horford’s matchup with Draymond Green is the key to Game 3. Offensively, Horford is more skilled and diverse than Green and he matches his intensity and grit. This will be crucial on Wednesday. 

The Celtics are the more complete team but as mentioned above, the Warriors have too many weapons and when Stephen Curry and Jordan Poole make ridiculous shots, with range, they can demoralize their defense at the right time. Nobody is scarier with a lead than Curry.

Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins bring a burst of athleticism, energy and scoring outside of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson to the Warriors but don’t overreact with this game. In the playoffs, when a team wins it may seem like they won’t lose again and when they lose, it may seem like they won’t win again. I anticipate Horford and Smart to play much better.


NBA Picks: Celtics -3.5 (-105) at BetOnline and Under 213 (-120) at Bovada

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