Warriors vs. Mavs Game 4 Predictions

Warriors vs. Mavericks NBA Playoffs Game 4 Picks: End of the Road for Dallas?

The Golden State Warriors visit the Dallas Mavericks in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals on Tuesday, looking to win and reach the NBA Finals for the sixth time in eight years.

The Warriors beat the Mavs 109-100 in Game 3 last Sunday. Here’s a complete breakdown for this contest, including betting odds and free NBA picks.

Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks 

Tuesday, May 24, 2022 – 09:00 PM EDT at American Airlines Center

The Mavericks opened at -1 at BetOnline and the total has been set at 215.5. FiveThirtyEight has the Mavericks as 3-point home favorites, projecting them to win 63 percent of the time. There’s a gap between the projections and the actual odds, should we take the home team to stay alive in this series or hammer the total? 

Betting Trends

The Warriors are:

  • 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall

  • 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as an underdog

  • 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win

The Mavericks are:

  • 1-4 ATS in their last five games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game

  • 0-4 ATS in their last four Conference Finals games

The Under is:

  • 5-1 in Golden State’s last six games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game

  • 6-2 in Golden State’s last eight games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game

  • 6-2 in Golden State’s last eight games as an underdog

  • 27-5-1 in Dallas’ last 33 home games against a team with a winning road record

  • 20-7 in Dallas’ last 27 games as a home favorite

  • 6-2 in Dallas’ last eight games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game

Projected Starting Lineups

Golden State Warriors

C: Kevon Looney

PF: Draymond Green
SF: Andrew Wiggins

SG: Klay Thompson
PG: Stephen Curry

Dallas Mavericks

C: Dwight Powell

PF: Dorian Finney-Smith
SF: Reggie Bullock

SG: Jalen Brunson
PG: Luka Doncic

Keys to This Game and X-Factors

Luka Doncic exploded for 40 points and 11 rebounds on 11 of 23 shooting and 4 of 9 from beyond the arc in Game 3, Spencer Dinwiddie had 26 points in 20 minutes off the bench and Jalen Brunson added 20 points, five rebounds and three assists but Reggie Bullock had a night to forget going scoreless on 0-for-10 from the field and 0-for-7 from beyond the arc.

With the Warriors, you know what you will get from Curry, Thompson, Green and Poole but it’s Kevon Looney who has changed everything. Looney had nine points and 12 rebounds in Game 3 and while he does not provide the spacing that many are so obsessed with, in the playoffs you need a rim protector and grinder. Looney gives the Warriors rebounding, size, physicality, easy baskets and alters the game defensively.  

The other X-Factor has been Andrew Wiggins, he is elite in his role. Wiggins is two-way player who can do it all, he elevates the Warriors on both ends and is perfect in this role. He is Golden State’s second-best player at this moment. 

With Wiggins you get an aggressive finisher and slasher who can shoot from midrange, hit open 3-point shots and defend the other team’s best player. Wiggins can give you at least 20 points every night and he had 27 points and 11 rebounds on Sunday. The Mavs have no answer for him. Overall, today’s Warriors are better than the 2015 Warriors. Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins bring a burst of athleticism, energy and scoring outside of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson.

What Are the Best Bets for Game 4? 

The Warriors are a machine that dealt with LeBron James in his prime and were able to live with him getting 40/8/8 when Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love were out in the 2015 NBA Finals. The Mavericks won’t avoid a sweep unless Luka Doncic gets way more help. The three Dallas reserves not named Spencer Dinwiddie had just two points combined. Bench play can be the difference once again. 

The Mavericks won’t win this game unless this unit contributes and I just don’t see this happening. I like the Warriors to take care of business in a game that can go Under this relatively low total. 

If you like player props, I ran some simulations and Stephen Curry is projected to finish with 26.2 points, 8.1 assists and 4.7 rebounds, making 8.2 field goals in 19.7 attempts while Luka Doncic is expected to score 32.8 points with 10.8 rebounds and 10.4 assists, making 11.1 field goals in 23.9 attempts. 

NBA Picks: 

  • Warriors -105 at BetOnline

  • Under 215.5 (-108) at BetOnline

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