Spurs vs. Nuggets Prediction
There’s just one Game 7 in the first round of the NBA Playoffs and it takes place tonight when the Denver Nuggets host the San Antonio Spurs at 10PM ET.
541 San Antonio Spurs vs. 542 Denver Nuggets
Saturday, April 27, 2019
10PM ET – Pepsi Center
Compare odds and from multiple different online sportsbooks and shop for the best lines at our new NBA Odds & Betting Page.
Public Betting Trends
According to oddsmakers, the Nuggets are favored at home, as they are getting odds of -6 points against the Spurs. The over/under total for the contest is listed at 209 points. The public betting for the contest has 57 percent going on the Nuggets at home. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our NBA Public Betting Page for updated figures on the game.
Spurs force Game 7
San Antonio was able to force a Game 7 in this series thanks to a 120-103 win at home over Denver on Thursday. The Spurs have won two of their three at home in the series. The Spurs are 51-37 on the season, 17-27 on the road, 46-40-2 against the spread and 47-40-1 with the over.
The Spurs showed their efficiency from the arc in Game 4, going 10 of 24 to live up to their league-best 3-point percentage. As a team, the Spurs were an impressive 48 of 84 form the field. LaMarcus Aldridge had a team-high 26 points with 10 rebounds and five assists while DeMar DeRozan had 25 points with seven rebounds and seven assists. Rudy Gay also had a nice effort with 19 points and four rebounds off the bench.
Nuggets return home
Denver slipped up on the road in Thursday’s 17-point loss. The Nuggets had been playing well over Games 4 and 5 but were playing from behind nearly the entire game. Denver also has won two of its three in this series at home. The Nuggets are 57-31 overall, 36-8 at home, 45-43 against the spread and 49-38-1 with the under.
The Nuggets couldn’t find their outside shot on Thursday, going just 6 of 24 from the arc in the loss. Nikola Jokic had an amazing showing, putting up 43 points on 19 of 30 shooting. He also had 12 rebounds and nine assists. However, he didn’t get much help. Jamal Murray was the next-leading scorer with 16 points on 7 of 18 shooting, while Gary Harris chipped in with 14 points.
NBA Betting Trends
The Spurs are just 2-7 against the spread in their last nine games following a win and 1-5 ATS in their last six following a cover.
The Nuggets are 3-10 against the spread in their last 13 conference quarterfinal games and 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games on 1 day of rest.
The spread is a little big for a Game 7, but it just indicates the differences between both teams when they are at home, compared to when they are on the road. Despite Denver dropping Game 1 at home, the Nuggets turned things around with a strong fourth in Game 2 and controlled the Spurs from start to finish in Game 5. The Nuggets know what they have to do to win this game and that is defend. The Spurs are likely to be defended much harder in Denver, which has led to a few defensive lapses on their part that have allowed the Nuggets to pull away. I will go with the Nuggets at home tonight.
NBA Prediction: Denver Nuggets -6