Timberwolves vs. Rockets Prediction
The Houston Rockets used a 50-point third quarter in Game 4 to open up a 3-1 series lead over the Minnesota Timberwolves. Now back its home floor, is Houston going to cover the spread while eliminating Minnesota tonight?
Wednesday, April 25, 2018
Toyota Center at 9:30PM ET
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Public Betting Information
According to oddsmakers at YouWager, the Rockets are a 12.5-point favorite on the spread line. The over-under is set at 216 points. As of Wednesday afternoon, 67 percent of public bets have been placed on the Rockets. Check out our NBA Public Betting Page for the latest information.
Rockets scary good in third quarter
Houston led 50-49 at halftime on the road in Game 4 before going on a tear in the third quarter, outscoring the T-Wolves by a margin of 50-20 to blow the game wide open en route to the 119-100 win. James Harden scored 22 of his 36 points in the third quarter the Rockets nearly broka the record of 51 points in an NBA playoff quarter set by the Los Angeles Lakers on March 31, 1962, in a loss to the Detroit Pistons. Chris Paul scored 15 of his 25 in the third quarter as Houston clicked on all cylinders and showed why it finished with the NBA's best record in the regular season. Houston went 16-of-43 from 3-point distance in the win and 23-of-26 from the free throw line.
Rose continues strong play off bench
Minnesota backup point guard Derrick Rose has had trouble staying on the court since tearing his ACL as a member of the Chicago Bulls shortly after winning league MVP honors. Now on his third team this season if you include Utah which waived him before he played a game, Rose is playing his best basketball of the season during the postseason. He scored 17 in the Game 4 loss and is averaging 14.8 points and 2.8 assists during the playoffs. Now 29 years old, he is showing he can still be a big contributor on the offensive side of the floor if healthy and given the opportunity.
NBA Betting Trends
The under is 4-0 in the last four Timberwolves road games against a team with a winning home record. Minnesota is 2-6 ATS in the last eight meetings.
The under is 10-1 in the last 11 Rockets home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The over is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings.
Houston looked filthy good in its last game and while the 12.5 is a big spread to cover as a favorite, if anyone can do it and make it look relatively easy it is the Rockets. But even so, I'm looking more at the total in this game. These two teams have a strong recent history of playing overs against each other, but I'm looking closer at the under as Houston's defense is still underrated despite being elite all season. Take away the 50-point quarter in Game 4, which certainly doesn't happen every day, and it would have fallen well short of the total most likely. Play the under with confidence here as Minnesota knows it must turn in a top-notch defensive performance to have any shot of staying alive.
NBA DAILY PREDICTION: TIMBERWOLVES/ROCKETS UNDER 216