Warriors-Lakers to play under total?

Warriors vs. Lakers NBA 3/6/16 Picks & Predictions

In a game that will be lopsided from the start, the Warriors will visit the Lakers at 3:30PM ET today in Kobe Bryant's final game versus Golden State.

According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, Golden State is a 16.5-point road favorite versus Los Angeles while the over/under is currently sitting at 222 points. The Warriors opened as a 14.5-point favorite but the line has been bet up two full points. (Compare lines for today's game at our NBA odds page.)

The first instinct for many bettors will be to take Golden State and watch the team roll today against a horrible L.A. squad. But if there's little to no value in laying the points on a 16.5-point road favorite and there's no sense in risking a wager on Los Angeles, even when getting a huge head start at tip-off.

Our Advanced Matchup Report indicates the Warriors should be a 16-point favorite

But there's been an interesting trend that as developed when the Warriors play bad teams. The under is a perfect 4-0 in their last four games versus opponents with a winning percentage below .400. The under is also 8-2 in their last 10 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of less than .400, and the under has cashed in 11 of their last 16 road games against an opponent with a losing home record.

What has happened is that oddsmakers have set the total for Golden State games incredibly high, which they should given the Warriors' scoring ability. But in games against substandard opponents like the Lakers, those opponents don't score enough against Golden State's outstanding defense to contribute to the over. The same thing should happen today at Staples Center.

The under, by the way, is also 14-6 in the Lakers' last 20 home games and 5-1 in their last six games following a loss of more than 10 points.


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