Heat a value as a home dog vs. Warriors?

 NBA Warriors vs. Heat 2/24/16 Picks & Predictions

The Heat are a sizable home underdog tonight versus the Warriors but they're also hot at the betting window. Will Miami cover?

According to oddsmakers from online sports book RealBet.eu, the Heat are 8.5-point home underdogs versus the Warriors while the over/under for tonight's game has gone from 215 down to 214.5. (See who NBA public bettors like in this matchup.)

Over its last 10 games Golden State is 9-1 straight up but just 5-5 against the spread, while Miami is 7-3 over its last 10 games and 7-3 at the betting window. On the road this season the Warriors are 19-11 ATS while the Heat have an ATS mark of 14-14 at home.

Shop and compare spreads and totals for all games at our NBA Odds Page

Prediction

With Golden State cashing as a 7-point road favorite on Monday night in Atlanta, oddsmakers likely inflated the number for tonight's game with bettors looking to double-down on the Warriors in back-to-back games. But the Heat are playing better ball than the Hawks of late and are a value as a home dog tonight.

Even without Chris Bosh (leg clots) and until his return on Monday, Dwyane Wade, the Heat have picked up the pace offensively and that has translated to three straight wins. While he dislocated the middle finger on his right hand, Luol Deng recorded his third straight double-double in the win over the Pacers as he's thriving in Miami's new-look offense.

The Heat are 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 games while the Warriors have failed to cover in four of their last five. Take the points.

WEDNESDAY NBA FREE PICK: MIAMI HEAT +8.5

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