2011 AAA Texas Free Picks

2011 nascar texas aaa 500 picks predictions odds trends

(The Spread) - This weekend the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to Texas Motor Speedway for Sunday's AAA Texas 500.

After last week’s race, just 21 points separate the top three, which makes it the closest margin among the top-three drivers with three races to go since NASCAR began its playoff format for its top-tier series in 2004. All three title contenders do well at Texas Motor Speedway, so we could easily see the points standing tighten up even more after Sunday.

Texas Motor Speedway is very similar to Las Vegas, with its high banking and high speeds. Look for all three contenders to be up front and in contention this week since none of the three can afford a bad finish over these last three races.

Matt Kenseth 7/1

Kenseth is probably the most consistent Chase driver at Texas Motor Speedway and one of the best on this type of track. He won the race here in April and finished second to Denny Hamlin last November. In the last five races here, he has four top fives. What’s even more impressive is since 2005 (twelve races), Kenseth has eight top fives and a worst finish of 20th. His average finish of 6.9 is the best in the series and Kenseth has led more laps (669) than anyone at this track. He needs a win in the worst way to move back up in the standings after last week's fiasco at Martinsville. There's no better place to get back in contention.

Denny Hamlin 10/1

Texas is one of Hamlin's best tracks on the circuit. He finished 15th here in April but prior to that race he finished first and has an average finish of 9.3, which is second best among all drivers. This year has been a big disappointment for Hamlin and his entire team since many picked him to dethrone Jimmie Johnson. But a win this week would help get this team back on track.

Live Longshot

Greg Biffle 15/1

In the last five races here, nobody has been better than Greg Biffle. In that span, he has three top fives and five top tens. He won here in 2005 after starting fifth and leading 219 of the 334 laps. If Biffle is going to win this year this is his best chance when you consider the last three races on the schedule.

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