USG Sheetrock 400
Man, what kind of jerk is Tony Stewart?
Not only does he wreck his own teammate last Saturday night at Daytona, while that teammate (Denny Hamlin) is leading the race, but then, when Stewart's crew tells him over the radio that Hamlin's No. 11 crew is going to help push Stewart's car toward the garage, he says 'don't let them touch this [expletive] thing.' And then he gives this interview:
'(He) tried to crash us on Friday in practice and didn't get it done so he finished it off (Saturday),' Stewart said. 'The No. 11 just stopped for no reason, right in the middle of Turn 4.... I guess he expects all of us to drive around him. I don't know.'
This was 15 laps into the event. This was on the lead of the race. And this was his teammate. Stewart wrecked Hamlin by crashing into his backside coming out of Turn 4, and then went on TV and said it was Hamlin's fault, and that the kid has a messed-up notion of what it means to be a teammate.
If nothing else, that's balls, dude.
Last Week: Stewart's misadventures hurt us, because we had him winning the race and we had him winning a head-to-head match-up against Jeff Gordon. A self-inflicted wound is a painful way for a winning streak to end. Anyway, for the weekend we lost 1.5 units, which still leaves us at a net positive of 6.7 units for the season on 27 units wagered, a 24.8% return. The good news is it was our first losing week in seven weeks. (Note that if you'd eschewed the conservative betting scheme we outline below, and simply bet one unit per wager on everything we recommend, you'd have lost four units last weekend, but for the year you'd still be up 23.07 units on 72 units wagered (a 32% return). Obviously, though, on a week-to-week basis, such a betting pattern is more risky.)
Take Jimmie Johnson (+450), 1/6th unit. Johnson's finishes at Chicagoland, this week's venue, have been spectacular: fourth, third, second, third and sixth. The problem, of course, is he's never actually sealed the deal and won here. J.J. is most likely the fave on the board this weekend because of this great track record (pardon the pun); sometimes it's good to understand line-makers' motivations and go the other way, but this is a case where I agree with them. The #48 hasn't really been very good the past couple months, and Chad Knaus will still be missing, but this is just the type of track where J.J. excels.
Take Kyle Busch (+1500), 1/6th unit. Busch doesn't have a lot of friends left at Hendrick Motorsports (funny how the Busch brothers tend to do that at their original teams), but at Chicagoland, he shouldn't need them (as he did while finishing second by an eyelash last week at Daytona). Busch has finished 14th and third in his two tries at this track, and he qualified sixth, then practiced fifth and fourth during Saturday's practices.
Take Matt Kenseth (+600), 1/6th unit. History tells us this race will almost certainly be won by a Chevy; of the six past Cup winners at this track, only Ryan Newman (+2401) has won in something other than a GM product. But Kenseth has been very strong at this track in consecutive years, only to fall short both times. In 2005, he made a bad pit error taking four tires to Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s (+1901) two, and couldn't catch Junior late. In 2006, Kenseth led the most laps and seemed to have the race in hand before Jeff Gordon (+700) caught him and wrecked him in the event's final few laps. It would mean a Ford winner, but I'm willing to take a shot.
by Michael Cash - thespread.com - Email Us
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