Yankees vs. Astros Pick
According to oddsmakers at Bovada.lv, the Astros are a -147 favorite to win on the moneyline. The Yankees are a +127 underdog and the over-under is 7.5.
New York took a 3-2 lead in the series with its third straight home win Wednesday night, prevailing by a count of 5-0. The last 10 meetings this season have been split 5-5 and the total has gone over seven times.
The Yankees will turn to Luis Severino (14-6, 2.98 ERA), while the Astros counter with Justin Verlander (15-8, 3.36). Severino had a 1.04 WHIP with 230 strikeouts over 193 1/3 innings during the regular season. He surrendered one earned run on two hits with no strikeouts and two walks over four innings in a 2-1 loss at the Astros in Game 2. He has allowed seven earned runs in 11 1/1 innings this postseason. Severino is 8-5 at home with a 3.71 ERA in 97 innings this year. Verlander carried a 1.17 WHIP with 219 strikeouts in 206 innings during the regular season. He was outstanding in Game 2 versus the Yankees as he allowed one earned run on five hits with 13 strikeouts and one walk in a complete-game 2-1 home victory. He has given up four earned runs in 17 2/3 innings during the postseason. Verlander is 8-2 with a 2.45 ERA in 95 2/3 home innings this year.
In Game 5, Gary Sanchez went 2-for-4 with a home run and two RBIs to help lead the way. Didi Gregorius finished 2-for-4 with a double and an RBI. Greg Bird was 1-for-2 with two walks and an RBI. Chase Headley was 3-for-4 with a double and a run scored. Masahiro Tanaka allowed three hits with eight strikeouts and one walk over seven shutout innings to notch the win For Houston, Yuli Gurriel and Carlos Correa were both 1-for-4 with a double. Dallas Keuchel surrendered four earned runs over 4 2/3 innings to take the loss.
The under is 13-5 in the last 18 meetings in Houston, but the over is 7-3 in the last 10 overall.
Verlander has been sensational as an Astro and it's difficult to imagine him not putting in another grand effort even coming off a complete game where he threw 124 pitches six days ago. Severino has been up-and-down and had an arm injury scare shorten his last start against the Astros. With Houston back in its home comfort zone, we like the hosts to prevail and force a Game 7.
MLB DAILY PREDICTION: HOUSTON ASTROS -147