Rockies vs. Diamondbacks Pick
According to oddsmakers at Bovada.lv, the Diamondbacks are a -178 favorite to win on the moneyline. The Rockies are a +153 underdog and the over-under is 8.5.
On the mound for Colorado will be Jon Gray (10-4, 3.67 ERA), while Arizona turns to Zack Greinke (17-7, 3.20). Gray holds a 1.30 WHIP with 112 strikeouts over 110 1/3 innings. Gray surrendered three earned runs on six hits with five strikeouts and no walks over six innings in a 15-9 home win over the Marlins his final regular season start. Gray has a 4.06 ERA in 64 1/3 road innings this year. He is 2-1 in three starts versus the Diamondbacks in 2017, posting a 3.50 ERA with 26 strikeouts over 18 innings. Greinke holds a 1.07 WHIP with 215 strikeouts in 202 1/3 innings. He wrapped up the regular season by giving up two earned runs on six hits with four strikeouts and two walks over four innings in a 2-1 loss at Kansas City. Greinke has a 13-1 record with a 2.87 ERA in 18 home starts this year, covering 116 innings. Greinke has made five starts against Colorado in 2017, going 2-1 with a 3.43 ERA and 37 strikeouts over 34 1/3 innings.
The Rockies finished the regular season with an 87-75 record and 41-40 on the road, while the D-backs are 93-69 and 52-29 at home. Arizona has won seven of the last 10 meetings and the over-under has gone 2-6-2. The two teams split a four-game series at Chase Field from Sept. 11-14, with the Diamondbacks outscoring Colorado by a count of 21-11.
Leadoff hitter Charlie Blackmon (1.000 OPS, 37 HRs, 104 RBIs, 14 SB) helps lead the Rockies, while Nolan Arenado (.959 OPS, 37 HRs, 130 RBIs) and Mark Reynolds (.839 OPS, 30 HRs, 97 RBIs) also contribute heavily. Arizona is paced by J.D. Martinez (1.066 OPS, 45 HRs, 104 RBIs), Paul Goldschmidt (.966 OPS, 36 HRs, 120 RBIs) and Jake Lamb (.844 OPS, 30 HRs, 105 RBIs).
It's difficult to find a reason to tilt away from the D-backs in this win-or-go-home game. Their offense, already strong, took a major step forward with the addition of Martinez before the trade deadline. He crushed 29 home runs in only 62 games after the trade, including two in four at-bats off Gray. While Gray has been pitching very well the last couple months, it is hard to envision a game where he doesn't have a hiccup or two against this lethal lineup. As for Greinke, the one benefit Colorado does have is that it has seen the Arizona ace five times already this season. But being the crafty pitcher he is, Greinke is capable of switching up his patterns to keep hitters off balance no matter how much they see him. This should be a competitive game, but the homefield advantage is huge here as the Rockies are not quite the same team away from Coors Field.
MLB DAILY PREDICTION: ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS -178