Marlins vs. Diamondbacks Pick
Oddsmakers at sports book Bovada.lv have listed the Diamondbacks as a -255 favorite to win on the moneyline. The Marlins are a +215 underdog and the over-under is 9.
Drawing the start for Miami will be Adam Conley (7-7, 5.20 ERA), while Arizona turns to ace Zack Greinke (17-6, 2.87). Conley has a 1.45 WHIP with 72 strikeouts over 98 2/3 innings. He allowed three earned runs on five hits with six strikeouts and three walks over 5 2/3 innings in a 7-4 home win against the Brewers his last start. Conley has a 3.47 ERA in 57 road innings. Greinke holds a 1.02 WHIP with 208 strikeouts in 194 1/3 innings. He threw eight shutout innings his last start, allowing only two hits with 10 strikeouts and one walk in a 2-0 win at the Giants. Greinke is 13-1 with a 2.33 ERA in 17 home starts.
Miami has a 72-80 record and is 32-43 on the road, while Arizona is 88-65 and 48-27 at home. The Marlins lead the season series 3-1 and the over-under is 2-2.
On Wednesday, Miami finished a three-game sweep with a 9-2 home win over the Mets. Giancarlo Stanton was 2-for-5 with his 56th home run and three RBIs. Dee Gordon went 2-for-5 with a double and two runs. Marcel Ozuna was 3-for-4 with a walk, a run and two RBIs. Justin Bour was 1-for-3 with a home run, two walks and two RBIs. Miguel Rojas finished 2-for-4 with a home run and two runs scored. Jose Urena gave up two earned runs in eight innings to record the victory. The Diamondbacks snapped a three-game losing streak with a 13-7 win Wednesday night at the Padres. David Peralta was 2-for-4 with a home run, two runs, two RBIs and a walk. Ketel Marte went 1-for-5 with a double, two runs and an RBI. Paul Goldschmidt was 2-for-3 with a walk, a run and two RBIs. J.D. Martinez contributed a two-run homer. Jake Lamb finished 1-for-3 with two walks, three runs and an RBI. A.J. Pollock was 1-for-4 with a home run, a walk, three runs and two RBIs. Jimmie Sherfy notched the win in relief.
Conley might have better road numbers, but he's not a very good MLB pitcher at this point of his career. He heads to Chase Field, where the Diamondbacks offense routinely chases pitchers quickly from games. Greinke is having a great season and his home numbers are outstanding, but even if he gives up a couple runs Arizona should be able to cover the rest of the number. We like the over in this game.
MLB DAILY PREDICTION: MARLINS/DIAMONDBACKS OVER 9