Marlins vs. Phillies Pick
The Miami Marlins and the Philadelphia Phillies continue their four-game series Wednesday at 7:05PM EST.
According to oddsmakers at BetDSI, the Marlins have been set as a 131 favorite on the moneyline to win. The Phillies are a +118 underdog, while the over-under is 10.
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Justin Nicolino (2-1, 4.11 ERA) draws the start for the Marlins, while the Phillies will go with Mark Leiter Jr. (1-3, 4.38). Nicolino is making his eighth start of the season and third of the month. His first two August starts have been superb, allowing one earned run in two straight starts. He only threw 5 1/3 and five innings in the two starts, however, so longevity is a concern. He has also allowed a lot of baserunners this year with a 1.73 WHIP in 30 2/3 innings. Leiter Jr. had been pitching well recently for Philadelphia until his last start in San Diego, where he gave up eight runs (four earned) on seven hits over five innings in an 8-4 loss. He has a 1.31 WHIP in 20 appearances (four starts) and a good strikeout rate with 46 K’s in 51 1/3 innings.
Miami has a 62-62 record and is 30-33 on the road, while the Phillies are 45-79 and 24-33 at home. Miami has won six of the last 10 meetings after sweeping Tuesday’s doubleheader, winning the opener 12-8 and the nightcap 7-4. Seven of the 10 games have gone over the total.
In the second game of Tuesday’s doubleheader, the Marlins scored three runs in the first and three in the second to take a commanding 6-0 lead en route to the win. Marcel Ozuna and Christian Yelich both homered. JT Realmuto contributed three hits, while Dee Gordon had two hits and scored two runs. Jose Urena gave up three earned runs over five innings to get the win, while Brad Ziegler earned his seventh save. Nick Pivetta allowed six earned runs in 1 1/3 innings to take the loss for Philadelphia. Nick Williams, Andres Blanco and Tommy Joseph all homered.
Leiter Jr. is better than his last start and arguably the better pitcher in this game. Both bullpens will be a bit depleted again, so it might come down to which starting pitcher can work deeper. The Phillies offense is a little better since the addition of power-hitting rookie Rhys Hopkins, so there’s good reason to believe they can pounce on Nicolino.
MLB DAILY PREDICTION: PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES +118