Braves vs. Mets Predictions
The New York Mets and Atlanta Braves will continue their battle for the NL East in the second game of a five-game series.
Can the Braves inch closer to the Mets?
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets
Friday, August 5, 2022, 7:10 PM ET at Citi Field
In the second game of a five-game series, the New York Mets will take on the Atlanta Braves.
The Mets and Braves are in a fierce battle for the top spot in the NL East. Every game matters, especially between these two teams as we get closer to the conclusion of the regular season.
Here are our picks and predictions for the second game of the series between the Mets and Braves.
The Pitching Match-Up
Taijuan Walker will get the start for the Mets in this one. He’s 9-2 on the season with a 2.79 ERA. Last year, he made the All-Star Game but eventually ran out of gas in the second half of the season.
This year, he hasn’t run out of gas in the second half of the year and is pitching very well.
Walker still has a 4.90 xFIP in the last 30 days but ultimately has limited walks along with line drives in that time frame.
On the other hand, the Braves will pitch Ian Anderson, who has a 9-6 record with a 4.89 ERA on the season. He’s been much more inconsistent this year but has actually performed better analytically in the last 30 days.
Anderson has a 4.09 xFIP with 22% of strikeouts in that time frame but has still allowed 28.8% of line drives when balls are batted into play.
Who has the more Favorable Lineup?
The Mets figure to have the same lineup as Game 1. New York is hitting near a .200 ISO with a wOBA at around .350 as a projected lineup. This lineup has also hit line drives over 27% of the time against righties in the last 30 days while minimizing ground balls to under 37%.
Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, and Daniel Vogelbach have been the hard-hitting power bats in the Mets lineup against righties.
Meanwhile, the Braves should ultimately keep their same lineup for the second game of the series as well. They’re hitting above a .200 ISO as a lineup along with a .313 ISO. The Braves have been striking out over 26% of the time against righties in the last 30 days, but ultimately, Walker isn’t a heavy strikeout pitcher right now.
Still, the Braves have hit just 17% of line drives when balls are batted into play. Things aren’t looking up for this offense against righties as of late.
Walker has limited wOBA and ISO to righties and lefties in the last 30 days. However, he still has an xFIP near 5 and has only induced 41.1% of grounders in those 30 days.
The Braves are really a boom or bust offense, needing the power to score runs. If they can’t get power against Walker, the Braves will struggle to score runs in this game. Five batters in the Braves lineup have a wOBA of .309 or worse.
The Braves have also walked under 7% of the time against righties in those 30 days.
On the other hand, Anderson is walking 11% of batters in the last 30 days and giving up plenty of line drive contact, as mentioned above. The Mets should be able to hit line drives as long as they limit strikeouts.
In the last 30 days, the Mets have only struck out under 19% of the time against righties. Anderson has given up a .395 wOBA to righties with his last 37 plate appearances against them.
There will only be three righties in the Mets lineup, so there’s not a whole lot of potential for the Mets either.
Walker should see more strikeouts against the Braves and if he limits power, the Braves won’t score much. Meanwhile, Anderson has been way worse against righties but the Mets will have a lineup mostly stacked with left-handers against the righty.
Therefore, I’m going with the under for my MLB picks. Anderson should be able to get his ERA lower while Walker will continue to have a successful season.
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-110) with BetOnline