Padres vs. Phillies Game 1 Prediction

San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies, 7/22/2018 Prediction & Odds

After the game was postponed on Saturday, the Padres and Phillies will play a doubleheader on Sunday as a makeup. Will Nick Pivetta lead the Phillies to victory when the teams play Game 1 at 12:05 p.m. ET?

Game Snapshot & Odds

905 San Diego Padres (+143) at 906 Philadelphia Phillies (-153); 9 runs

Sunday, July 22, 2018

12:05 p.m. ET, Citizens Bank Park

TV: SD (FSSD); PHI (NBCSP)

Compare odds and from multiple different online sportsbooks and shop for the best lines at our new Baseball Odds & Betting Page.

Public Betting Trends

Oddsmakers from online sportsbooks currently list the Phillies as a -153 favorite. As of this writing, 72% of the betting tickets wagered at online sportsbooks are on the Phillies to beat the Padres on the moneyline. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our MLB Public Betting Page for updated figures on this game.

Padres' Perdomo fails to find success in last start vs. Cubs

Luis Perdomo allowed five runs on seven hits over 4 1/3 innings in Saturday's loss to the Cubs. Eric Hosmer was gracious enough to hand Perdomo a 2-0 lead via a first-inning home run off Kyle Hendricks, but the right-hander did not manage to hold onto that edge for long. Ian Happ clubbed a solo home run off him in the second inning and Kyle Schwarber rocked a two-run shot off him in the fourth inning before Javier Baez put an end to his night with a two-run double with one out in the fifth. It was Perdomo's second consecutive stinker-of-a-start, as the Dodgers pounded him for six runs when he last toed the rubber. He'll have a week to breathe with the All-Star Game approaching, at least, but the stark reality is that the 25-year-old has pitched to a 7.55 ERA and 2.10 WHIP in seven starts this season.

Phillies' Pivetta notches a quality start in win over Orioles

Nick Pivetta struck out seven while allowing three runs over 6 2/3 innings in a win over the Orioles on Thursday. Pivetta rolled through six innings, allowing only one run, but got into trouble in the seventh when, after striking out two of the first three batters he saw, Trey Mancini hit a two-run home run to pull the O's within two. That was all for Pivetta, who finished with five hits and a walk allowed. It was a needed and important showing for the 25-year-old heading into the All-Star break, as he'd failed to get out of the third inning in each of his prior two starts. Pivetta hits the break 6-7 with a 4.58 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and 113 strikeouts through 96 1/3 innings this year.

MLB Betting Trends

San Diego

The Padres are 19-41 in their last 60 games against the Phillies and 4-12 in their last 16 games played at Citizens Bank Park.

Philadelphia

The Phillies have won five straight home games versus a team with a losing road record.

Prediction:

Pivetta owns a 4.58 ERA but the advanced metrics paint a better picture for the Philly starter. His FIP is 3.76 and his xFIP is 3.41, so a positive regression is on its way. Also, the Phillies are 10-4 in his last 14 home starts and are 8-3 in his last 11 outings when he faces a team with a losing record. The Padres, meanwhile, are 0-5 in Perdomo's last five starts and have lost four of his last five road outings.

 

The Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -153 (Game 1)

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