Home Run Derby Predictions
Angels’ superstar Shohei Ohtani is the odds favorite to win the 2021 MLB Home Run Derby, which will take place on Monday night at 8:00 p.m. ET. Is Ohtani the smart bet or is there a better play on the board?
2021 Home Run Derby Bracket
Ohtani is the No. 1 seed and will take on Nationals’ slugger Juan Soto in the first round of tonight’s Derby. On the same side of the bracket, No. 4 seed Salvador Perez of the Royals will face Mets’ slugger and No. 5 seed Pete Alonso for the right to take on either Ohtani or Soto in the semifinals.
On the other side of the bracket will be the No. 2 seed Joey Gallo, who will face hometown favorite Trevor Story in the first round. The other first-round matchup will be No. 3 Matt Olson versus No. 6 Trey Mancini of the Orioles. The winners of Gallo-Story and Olson-Mancini will square off in the semifinals.
2021 Home Run Derby Outright Odds
Tonight’s favorite is Ohtani, who is +260 to win the MLB Home Run Derby at +260, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. The hitter with the next-best odds is Gallo at +400, followed by Alonso at +450. Olson is +500, then the odds drop off a cliff from there, as Soto is +850, Story is +950 and Perez is +1400. While it would be a great story if Mancini won coming off a missed 2020 season due to a cancer diagnosis, the Baltimore outfielder has the longest odds on the board at +1700.
2021 Home Run Derby Matchup Odds
In the first round, Ohtani is a sizable favorite (-225) over Soto (+184), while Alonso is a big favorite (-210) over Perez (+172). The other side of the bracket is more competitive, although not by much. Gallo is -180 to beat Story (+152), while Olson is -188 to beat Mancini (+156).
2021 Home Run Derby Matchup Predictions
Ohtani -225 over Soto
Perez +172 over Alonso
Gallo -180 over Story
Olson -188 over Mancini
2021 Home Run Derby Outright Winner
He’s the favorite but he’s the favorite for a reason and his odds still offer plenty of value. I’ll also take some shares of Gallo at +400, as I see him advancing from the other side and has the strength to last