Phillies vs. Pirates Saturday Prediction

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates, 7/7/2018 Prediction & Odds

After they were waxed on Friday night, will the Pittsburgh Pirates rebound to beat the visiting Philadelphia Phillies at 4:05 p.m. ET on Saturday?

Game Snapshot & Odds

905 Philadelphia Phillies (+105) at 906 Pittsburgh Pirates (-125); 8 runs

Saturday, July 7, 2018

4:05 p.m. ET, PNC Park

TV: PHI (NBCSP); PIT (ATTP)

Compare odds and from multiple different online sportsbooks and shop for the best lines at our new Baseball Odds & Betting Page.

Public Betting Trends

Oddsmakers from online sportsbooks currently list the Twins as a -118 favorite. As of this writing, 60% of the betting tickets wagered at online sportsbooks are on the Twins to beat the Cardinals on the moneyline. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our MLB Public Betting Page for updated figures on this game.

Phillies' Arrieta gets no decision against Nationals in last start

Jake Arrieta allowed three runs - two earned - over five innings in a no decision against the Nationals on Sunday. Arrieta walked two and struck out two. He was once again let down by his defense, as another unearned run came across to score against him. It’s a rather pedestrian start from the veteran right-hander; one that didn’t see him miss many bats, but he didn’t get much help from the defense (again) on Sunday. His season ERA now sits at 3.54, and he’s struck out just 61 hitters in 89 innings. Arrieta starts again on Saturday in a contest with the Pirates.

Pirates' Taillon doesn't last long in start vs. Padres

Jameson Taillon allowed four runs - three earned - and seven hits with three walks and four strikeouts over 4 2/3 innings in a no-decision at San Diego on Sunday. Taillon threw just 55 of his 88 pitches for strikes, including only 15 first-pitch strikes to the 24 batters he faced. His battery mate, Elias Diaz, also let him down with an error on a muffed catch. Luckily for Taillon and his fantasy owners, he escaped the loss since Tyson Ross was equally ineffective on the other side. Taillon will look to bounce back next Saturday against Jake Arrieta and the rival Phillies.

MLB Betting Trends

Philadelphia

The Phillies are a perfect 5-0 in their last five games versus the Pirates.

Pittsburgh

The Pirates have lost four straight games overall and six straight at home.

Prediction:

I realize backing a favorite that has lost six straight at home isn't always the most profitable strategy but the Bucs are due. Taillon has struggled but the Pirates are 10-4 in his last 14 starts when he's coming off five days of rest and the home team is 9-2 in Roberto Ortiz's last 11 games behind home plate. Meanwhile, the Phillies have dropped five of Arrieta's last six road starts, they're 1-4 in his last five outings coming off five days of rest, and they've dropped 10 of their last 13 games at PNC Park despite winning last night here.

 

The Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates -125

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