Nationals vs. Phillies Sunday Prediction

Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies, 7/1/2018 Prediction & Odds

The Washington Nationals will attempt to earn a series split with the Philadelphia Phillies when the two teams meet at 1:35 p.m. ET on Sunday. Are the Phillies a good bet as a home dog today?

Game Snapshot & Odds

905 Washington Nationals (-120) at 906 Philadelphia Phillies (+100); 9 runs

Sunday, July 1, 2018

1:35 p.m. ET, Citizens Bank Park

TV: WSH (MSN2); PHI (CSP)

Compare odds and from multiple different online sportsbooks and shop for the best lines at our new Baseball Odds & Betting Page.

Public Betting Trends

Oddsmakers from online sportsbooks currently list the Nationals as -120 money line favorites for Sunday's matchup. As of this writing, 60% of the betting tickets wagered at online sportsbooks are on the Phillies to beat the Nationals on the moneyline. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our MLB Public Betting Page for updated figures on this game.

Nationals' Gonzalez lasts just one-plus innings vs. Rays

Gio Gonzalez lasted just one-plus innings and gave up six runs Monday against the Rays. Gonzalez retired three out of four batters in the first and then zero out of seven before he was finally pulled in the second. It turned into the shortest start of his career, overtaking a 1 2/3-inning outing for the A's 10 years ago versus the Tigers. In his roughest stretch since 2016, he's given up 17 runs over 14 1/3 innings in his last four starts, taking his ERA from 2.27 to 3.68. Still, we wouldn't recommend benching him in mixed leagues just yet.

Phillies' Arrieta lit up by Yankees to round out awful June

Jake Arrieta completed an awful June with a clunker versus the Yankees on Tuesday, getting charged with six runs – three earned – over five frames. A Cesar Hernandez throwing error in the third inning led to three Yankees runs. Arrieta can’t blame this all on his defense, though, as he was battered for nine hits – including a pair of home runs – and a walk while needing 81 pitches to cover his five innings. The veteran right-hander finishes June with a 6.66 ERA over five starts and he has just 59 strikeouts across 84 frames this season. He’s given up a league-high 14 unearned runs already. Arrieta will try to bounce back Sunday against a struggling Nationals offense.

MLB Betting Trends

Washington

The Nationals have dropped 11 of their last 15 games overall.

Philadelphia

The Phillies are 0-5 in their last five games when facing a left-handed starter.

Prediction:

Both pitchers struggled in June but Gonzalez has excellent numbers versus the Phillies. He has faced this current Philadelphia roster in 129 career plate apperances and he owns a .149 batting average against and a 2.92 FIP to go along with a 24.8% strikeout rate. Arrieta's numbers aren't horrible against the current Nationals roster but his FIP is 4.55 over 126 career plate appearances versus Washington and his strikeout rate is just 18.3%. If I'm being honest, I don't trust either starter but I trust Arrieta less coming off such a horrific June.

 

The Pick: Washington Nationals -120

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