Marlins vs. Padres Prediction
Only one team in the National League has a worse record than the Miami Marlins and the San Diego Padres. Will San Diego prove to be the better bottom dweller at home tonight as it goes for a third straight win in the finale of a four-game series against Miami?
Thursday, May 31, 2018
Petco Park at 9:10PM ET
TV: FSSD (SD)
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Public Betting Information
According to oddsmakers, the Padres are a -135 favorite to win on the moneyline. The Marlins are a +125 underdog, while the total is set at 7.5 runs. As of Thursday afternoon, 63 percent of public bets are siding with host San Diego. Check out our MLB Public Betting Page for the latest info.
Padres rally with two in ninth
San Diego won Wednesday night's game by a 3-2 score over Miami after scoring a pair of runs in the ninth inning off closer Brad Ziegler, whose ERA ballooned to 7.83. An RBI infield single by Hunter Renfroe tied the score, while a throwing error on the play allowed the winning run to score in the form of Freddy Galvis. Eric Hosmer went 2-for-3 with a walk to contribute to the win. Franmil Reyes hit a solo home run in the bottom of the fourth to bring the Padres within a 2-1 deficit. Matt Strahm threw two scoreless innings to earn the win in relief.
Castro accounts for Miami runs
The only runs by Miami in the loss came on a two-run homer by Starlin Castro, which staked his squad to a 2-0 advantage in the top of the fourth inning. J.T. Realmuto was 1-for-3 with a walk and scored the other run. Brian Anderson and J.T. Riddle had the only other hits for the Marlins. Ziegler gave up two earned runs on two hits with two walks in one-third of an inning in the losing effort.
MLB Betting Trends
The Marlins are 6-21 in their last 27 Thursday games. Miami is 13-30 in its last 43 road games.
The under is 15-5-1 in the last 21 Padres games on Thursday. San Diego is 2-6 in the last eight meetings.
The Padres have taken advantage of playing an even weaker team the last two days, but something tells me the Marlins are going to walk away with a split. Chen was dominant in his last start against the Nationals and he should have good feel again today against a Padres lineup that can be overly aggressive. Lyles hasn't pitched very well his last couple starts since carrying a no-hitter into the eighth against Colorado. I'm going to take my chances on the underdog here and hope the Marlins offense can produce enough in a pitcher's park to support Chen.
MLB DAILY PREDICTION: MIAMI MARLINS +125