Cubs vs. Mets Thursday Prediction
The Chicago Cubs and New York Mets open a new weekend series at Citi Field on Thursday night. Will the first game of the series fall under the total for bettors when the clubs meet at 7:10 p.m. ET?
Game Snapshot & Odds
Thursday, May 31, 2018
7:10 p.m. ET, Citi Field
TV: CHC (CSNC); NYM (SNY)
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Public Betting Trends
Oddsmakers from online sportsbooks currently list the Cubs as a -165 favorite. As of this writing, 61% of the betting tickets wagered at online sportsbooks are on the Cubs to beat the Mets on the moneyline. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our MLB Public Betting Page for updated figures on this game.
Cubs' Quintana allows four runs in loss to Giants
Jose Quintana allowed four runs over 4 1/3 innings in a loss to the Giants on Saturday. The southpaw struck out six but gave up too many extra-base hits, yielding three doubles and a two-run homer among his five hits allowed. He also walked two while fanning six. Quintana has been oscillating between good and not-so-good starts basically all year, a trend that's resulted in a 5-4 record, 4.78 ERA and 1.48 WHIP through 10 starts. If you believe in patterns, then Quintana should fare well against the Mets in Queens on Thursday.
Mets' Lugo blows two separate leads
Seth Lugo blew leads in the eighth and ninth innings for the Mets to take the loss in the first game of Monday's doubleheader against the Braves. Lugo allowed one run in the eighth to tie the game at 2-2. Even so, he was left in for the ninth after the Mets scored a go-ahead run. He promptly gave up a two-run homer to one of the league's worst hitters, Charlie Culberson, to take the loss, which was his first of the season. He now has a 2.48 ERA in relief.
MLB Betting Trends
The Cubs are 4-1 in their last five games against the Mets but are just 1-8 in their last nine games played at Citi Field.
The over is 5-0 in the last five meetings between these two teams and is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings at Citi Field.
Despite the trends in this series favoring the over, I like the combined score to fall under the betting total tonight. Quintana has not had a great season but he owns a 3.96 SIERA, which indicates that his 4.29 ERA should show some positive regression soon. He's still striking batters out at a 25.2% rate and he's generating ground balls at a 44.7% rate as well. Quintana will be able to neutralize the lefties in this Mets' lineup and work around the righties, thus suppressing tonight's run production. Now we just need Lugo not to fall apart against Chicago's dangerous lineup but the Cubs do get a negative park adjustment hitting at Citi Field so we should be fine.