Dodgers vs. Marlins Thursday Prediction
The struggling Los Angeles Dodgers are favored on the road Thursday afternoon in Miami. Will the Dodgers snap their six-game losing streak or will the Marlins pull off what was thought to be an improbable sweep at the start of this series?
Game Snapshot & Odds
Thursday, May 17, 2018
12:10 p.m. ET, Marlins Park
TV: LAD (SNLA); MIA (FSFL)
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Public Betting Trends
Oddsmakers from online sportsbooks currently list the Dodgers as a -155 favorite. As of this writing, 55% of the betting tickets wagered at online sportsbooks are on the Dodgers to beat the Marlins on the moneyline. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our MLB Public Betting Page for updated figures on this game.
Dodgers' Maeda allows five runs in another loss
Kenta Maeda surrendered five runs in 4 2/3 innings Friday in a loss to the Reds. With 46 strikeouts, 13 walks and four homers allowed in 36 innings, Maeda's peripherals are strong. However, he's allowed 40 hits, leaving him with a 4.75 ERA. He should do considerably better the rest of the way.
Marlins' Smith limits damage but still loses to Braves
Caleb Smith gave up seven hits and walked two but allowed just two runs over 5 1/3 innings in a loss to the Braves on Thursday. Things could have been much worse for Smith, who allowed multiple baserunners in three of the six innings in which he pitched. Despite the loss, he's been above average in each of his last four starts, dropping his ERA from 6.89 to 3.63 across the four starts. A start Wednesday against the Dodgers is on deck for the southpaw.
MLB Betting Trends
The Dodgers are now winless in their last four games versus the Marlins.
The under is 8-2 in the last 10 games between these two teams in Miami but the over is 45-21-6 in the last 72 meetings between these two teams.
Maeda has a healthy strikeout rate, walk rate and hard contact rate so don't be fooled by the high ERA. That said, I still don't love the Dodgers in this spot. The Marlins are a weak-hitting club overall but they fare well against right-handed pitchers while the Dodgers have struggled against lefties. The pitching matchup slightly favors L.A. but when you consider the Dodgers have lost six straight and Smith has a healthy strikeout rate of 28.2%, I'm willing to take the chance that the Marlins pull off another upset.
The Pick: Miami Marlins +140