Marlins vs. Reds Sunday Prediction

Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds, 5/6/2018 Prediction & Odds

After splitting the first two games of the series, the Miami Marlins and Cincinnati Reds will play the rubber match on Sunday. Will today's 4:10 p.m. ET matchup result in a high-scoring affair?

Game Snapshot & Odds

909 Miami Marlins (+110) at 910 Cincinnati Reds (-120); 9.5 runs

Sunday, May 6, 2018

4:10 p.m. ET, Great American Ball Park

TV: MIA (FSFL); CIN (FSO)

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Public Betting Trends

Oddsmakers from online sportsbooks currently list the Reds as a -120 favorite. As of this writing, 54% of the betting tickets wagered at online sportsbooks are on the Marlins to beat the Reds on the moneyline. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our MLB Public Betting Page for updated figures on this game.

Marlins' Straily allows four runs in season debut

Dan Straily yielded four earned runs over four innings in his season debut Monday against the Phillies. Jorge Alfaro popped him for a two-run homer in the top of the second inning and Maikel Franco added another two-run shot in the top of the fourth. Straily gave up six hits in all and walked four, but Miami's bullpen delivered five scoreless innings in an eventual 8-4 victory. Straily struggled on his three-start minor league rehab assignment and should probably go on being ignored in standard fantasy leagues coming off a right forearm injury.

Reds' Finnegan struggles vs. Brewers in last start

Brandon Finnegan yielded three runs in five innings Monday in a no-decision against the Brewers. Finnegan walks too many batters and hasn't showed any real ability to suppress homers or hits, and the Reds should seriously consider moving him to the pen if he doesn't get better in a hurry. He's 0-2 with a 7.27 ERA and a 12/12 K/BB ratio in four starts since coming off the DL.

MLB Betting Trends

Miami

The Marlins are just 13-27 in the last 40 meetings between these two teams in Cincinnati.

Cincinnati

The under is a perfect 5-0 in the last five games between these two teams in Cincinnati.

Prediction:

Despite the trends favoring the under, I'm going to lay the 9.5 runs on the over given the pitching matchup. The Marlins aren't exactly a juggernaut offensively but should fare well against Finnegan, while the Reds do have some pop to take advantage of their former starter Straily. Plus, this game will be played in hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park so I feel good about the 9.5.

 

The Pick: Marlins/Reds over 9.5

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