Reds vs. Cardinals Friday Prediction

Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals, 4/20/2018 Prediction & Odds

After earning a two-game split against the Cubs in Chicago, the St. Louis Cardinals return home to take on their National League Central rivals the Cincinnati Reds for a weekend series. Will Friday night's game turn into a high-scoring affair?

Game Snapshot & Odds

907 Cincinnati Reds (+155) at 908 St. Louis Cardinals (-189)

Friday, April 20, 2018

8:15 p.m. ET, Busch Stadium

TV: CIN (FSO); FSMW (STL)

Public Betting Trends

Oddsmakers from online sportsbook YouWager currently list the Cardinals as a -189 favorite. As of this writing, 81% of the betting tickets wagered at online sportsbooks are on the Cardinals to beat the Reds on the money line. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our MLB Public Betting Page for updated figures on this game.

Reds' Finnegan coming off rough debut vs. Cardinals

Brandon Finnegan allowed five runs in 4 1/3 innings and took a loss to the Cardinals in his first start of the year on Saturday. He didn't pitch well at all, walking four batters and surrendering six base hits. Light-hitting Greg Garcia burned him for two home runs in the contest.

Finnegan did manage four strikeouts but it was not a good season debut for the young left-hander, who sat out the first few weeks of the campaign due to a biceps injury. He missed almost all of last season after injuring both of his shoulders.

Finnegan should have a fairly long leash in the Reds' decimated starting rotation. He has a career 16-15 record and 3.83 ERA in 240 innings dating back to 2014 with the Royals. He came to the Reds as part of the Johnny Cueto trade in the summer of 2015.

Cards' Wacha 2-1 but numbers aren't good

Michael Wacha fought his way through five innings Thursday, allowing four runs -- three earned -- on five hits in a win over the Reds. Wacha wasn't super sharp, walking three while striking out five, but he was still good enough to pick up his second win of the young season.

That's been the story so far -- he's got just a 5.52 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in his three starts, and hasn't gone more than five innings in any of them, but he's 2-1 in the won-loss column. Wacha better hope his good luck continues.

MLB Betting Trends

Cincinnati

The Reds are 1-10 in Finnegan's last 11 starts when he's coming off five days of rest. That said, they're 7-3 in his last 10 starts when facing National League Central opponents.

St. Louis

The Cardinals are 22-7 in Wacha's last 29 starts versus a team with a losing record.

Prediction:

The over has been a great bet in this series, especially when these two pitchers toe the rubber for their respective teams. The over is 4-0-1 in Wacha's last five starts versus the Reds and is 6-1 in his last seven home outings against Cincinnati. The over is also 4-0 in Finnegan's last four road starts versus the Cardinals and is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings between these two teams in St. Louis. With the total sitting at just 8.5, I like this game to be high-scoring given the respective pitchers.

 

The Pick: Reds/Cardinals over 8.5

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