Phillies vs. Rays Prediction

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Tampa Bay Rays, 4/14/2018 Prediction & Odds

The Philadelphia Phillies are heating up and will have their biggest offseason signing on the mound Saturday evening when they visit the Tampa Bay Rays at 6:10 p.m. ET. Will the Phillies post their fifth straight victory tonight and pull off a small upset?

Game Snapshot & Odds

929 Philadelphia Phillies at 930 Tampa Bay Rays; 7 runs

Saturday, April 14, 2018

6:10 p.m. ET, Tropicana Field

TV: CSP (PHI); FSFL (TB)

Public Betting Trends

Oddsmakers from online sportsbook YouWager currently list the Rays as a -125 favorite. As of this writing, 67% of the betting tickets wagered at online sportsbooks are on the Phillies to beat the Rays on the moneyline. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our MLB Public Betting Page for updated figures on this game.

Arrieta struggles in first inning of debut start for Phillies

Jake Arrieta allowed three runs over four innings in the Phillies' 6-3 loss to the Marlins last Sunday. All three of those runs came in the first inning as Arrieta struggled in his debut for the Phillies. He allowed a home run to Miguel Rojas and a two-run single to Khalil Lee in the first inning. He did settle in after that but the Marlins eventually got to the Phillies' bullpen in the later innings.

Quotable: "It's very different, but you saw what (Curt) Schilling and (Pedro) Martinez did with the Red Sox," Phillies manager Gabe Kapler said after Friday's win, citing strong starts from Jake Pivetta and Vince Velasquez. "When one guy comes out and has a good start, the other guy wants to come out and match it, or do it a little better. As long as there is respect for it amongst our starts, it's nice to see them competing in games and trying to match the last guy's performance."

Archer has yet to look sharp in early going

While he did get the win, Chris Archer was not sharp on Monday while allowing four runs (three earned) over 5 2/3 innings in a 5-4 Rays' victory over the White Sox. He allowed a two-run home run to Nick Delmonico in the fifth inning but he did strike out eight batters. Archer wasn't very efficient while needing 102 pitches to get through 5 2/3 innings. He holds a 5.94 ERA.

Quotable: "I've already watched tons of video on this team already," said Archer, who said he evaluated tape of the Phillies against Atlanta's Mike Foltynewicz and the New York MetsNoah Syndergaard, just as two National League pitchers with similar pitching styles.

MLB Betting Trends

Philadelphia

The Phillies are a perfect 4-0 in their last four games but are still just 30-67 in their last 97 contests on the road.

Tampa Bay

The Rays have dropped 10 of their last 12 games overall.

Prediction:

I'm going to back the hotter team getting plus odds at the betting window. The Rays have dropped four straight games at home, are just 8-23 in Archer's last 31 starts versus an opponent that owns a winning record, and are 2-9 in their last 11 interleague home games versus a team with a winning record. I expect Arrieta to be sharper in the early going, especially against this weak Tampa Bay lineup.

 

The Pick: Philadelphia Phillies +115

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