Phillies vs. Marlins Friday Prediction

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins, 4/12/2019 Predictions & Odds

While the total has climbed a full run from the opening number, is there reason to believe that Friday night’s matchup between the Phillies and Marlins will fall under? First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET tonight in Miami between these NL East rivals.

Game Snapshot & Odds

953 Philadelphia Phillies (-161) at 954 Miami Marlins (+140); 8.5 runs

Friday, April 12, 2019

7:10 p.m. ET, Marlins Park, Miami, FL

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Public Betting Trends

According to our MLB Public Betting Chart page, 76% of the betting tickets are on the Phillies to beat the Marlins on the moneyline.

Philadelphia Phillies Fantasy Spin

Cesar Hernandez went 2-for-3 and worked a walk in a lopsided loss to the Nationals on Wednesday. The second baseman singled twice and reached base three times in four chances as his team got thrashed within an inch of their lives. Hernandez's fantasy value took a dive when he went from being the Phillies everyday leadoff hitter last year to the bottom of the lineup this year. He is off to a very slow start at the dish as well, sporting a paltry .194/.268/.278 slash line with no homers and four RBI in 10 games.

Miami Marlins Fantasy Spin

Peter O'Brien struck out in both of his at-bats before being double-switched out of Thursday's game against the Reds. We're not sure what O'Brien is even doing in the majors when Austin Dean is probably a better bet offensively and far superior defensively. The Marlins had O'Brien penciled in as a regular at the beginning of the spring, only to send him down because he performed so poorly in March. He's 3-for-27 with a homer and 14 strikeouts since being brought back to replace Garrett Cooper.

MLB Betting Trends

Philadelphia

The Phillies are just 1-5 in Jake Arrieta’s last six starts and are 1-5 in his last six outings on the road.

Miami

The Marlins have beaten the Phillies four times in the last five meetings between these two clubs in Miami.

Prediction:

I don’t know why the total for this game has jumped from 7.5 to 8.5 but it has created nice value for bettors willing to play the under tonight. Arrieta’s strikeout and walk rates through two starts is concerning but he also faced top-10 offenses versus right-handed pitching in the Braves and Twins. Arrieta should fare much better against a horrendous Miami lineup in a pitcher’s park. The under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings between these two teams in Miami, which is where Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara has pitched well.

The Pick: Phillies/Marlins UNDER 8.5

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