Phillies vs. Marlins Pick

2013-marlins-nolasco01-360

MIAMI, FL (ATS CONSULTANTS) – The Marlins are hoping to pick up a needed win at home when they host the Phillies at 7:10PM ET from Marlins Park.

View Current MLB Odds

ODDS: According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Phillies are currently favored on the road, as they have money line odds of -120, while the Marlins have odds of +111 at home. The over/under total for this game has been set at 8 runs. Philadelphia is 4-5 on the season and 1-2 on the road while Miami is 1-8 overall and 0-3 at home.

LINE MOVEMENT: The Marlins opened as +105 underdogs at home. That was the lowest their odds were leading up to the game. The odds hit a high of +112 for the Marlins before closing at +111. The over/under opened at 9 runs, its peak. The total hit a low of 7.5 before closing at 8 runs.

PUBLIC BETTING: Of the current wagers placed on tonight’s game, 77% of the betting public currently favors the Phillies with odds of -120. This information is subject to change, however, so make sure you click on the link provided for the most updated numbers.

MLB FREE PICK: Take Philadelphia. According to latest MLB trends, the Phillies are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings, 26-12 in the last 38 meetings in Miami, 6-2 in their last 8 road games vs. a right-handed starter and 29-14 in their last 43 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Miami is 16-35 in their last 51 games on grass, 21-47 in their last 68 games as an underdog, 13-38 in their last 51 vs. National League East, 6-20 in their last 26 games vs. a left-handed starter,  2-7 in their last 9 home games vs. a left-handed starter,  2-8 in their last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 and 6-13 in Nolasco's last 19 starts as a home underdog.

LAST MEETING: (9/30/12) Philadelphia (-159) over Miami, 4-1. The Phillies (4-5, 7-2 O/U) are coming off a two-game winning streak, after beating the New York Mets, 7-3 on Wednesday. Miami (1-8, 3-5 O/U) has lost five straight games and is arguably the worst team in baseball. Philadelphia goes with former Washington pitcher John Lannan, a solid lefty who pitched well in his first game last Saturday against Kansas City. He did not get a decision against the Royals, allowing three runs and five hits over seven innings, as the Phils won 4-3. Ricky Nolasco goes for Miami after allowing three runs in 5 1/3 IP against the Mets on Friday in a 7-5 win on the road for their only victory of the season. Miami has scored just 16 runs this season in nine games. As long as you can get a decent line going against the Marlins early in the season against a decent pitcher and team, this is a no-brainer. Philadelphia cruises to reach .500 for the season.

FRIDAY MLB FREE PICK: PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES -120

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