Brewers vs. Cardinals Prediction

Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals 4/11/18, Prediction & Odds

After splitting the first two games of the series, the Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals will play a rubber match Wednesday at Busch Stadium. Following two eventual finishes the prior two nights, how can bettors capitalize on today’s matchup?

Game Snapshot with Current Odds

953 Milwaukee Brewers (+149) at 954 St. Louis Cardinals (-166); 8.5 runs

Wednesday, April 11, 2018, 1:15 p.m. ET, Busch Stadium

TV: FSWI (MIL); FSMW (STL)

Public Betting Trends

As of this writing, the Cardinals are receiving 74% of the betting tickets wagered at online sportsbooks to beat the Brewers Wednesday on the money line. Meanwhile, 67% of the betting tickets wagered at on the total are on the over.

Brewers continue to blow multiple chances to win games

For all intents and purposes, the Brewers should have won Tuesday night’s game. After taking an early 1-0 lead on an Eric Thames home run in the first inning, the Cardinals later tied the game at 1-1, which was the score heading into the ninth. The Brewers then scratched across a run to make it 2-1 but in the bottom half of the frame, Milwaukee pitching walked in a run to send the game to extras. There, the Brewers were build a 3-2 lead, blow that, then eventually JJ Hoover allowed three earned runs, including a walk-off two-run home run to Matt Carpenter in extra-innings. Hoover was designated for assignment Wednesday morning so the blown game cost him his job.

Milwaukee also called up right-hander Junior Guerra from Triple-A Colorado Springs to make a spot start today. The 33-year-old right-hander posted a 5.12 ERA across 70 1/3 innings last season at the major league level.

Wainwright’s time in the St. Louis Cardinals’ rotation could be fleeting

For the most part, the Cardinals have received good starting pitching to start the year. Carlos Martinez held the Brewers to just one run across six-plus innings in Tuesday’s 5-3 extra-innings victory and now has back-to-back excellent starts under his belt. Luke Weaver has also been impressive, while Michael Wacha and Miles Mikolas have been inconsistent but has helped the Cards win games with their efforts.

Then there’s veteran Adam Wainwright, revered for his ace-like work for nearly a decade in St. Louis. He’s been on a decline the past two seasons and is coming off a sad performance last week against the Diamondbacks in which he looked like he had nothing left. The club has a starter in Triple-A Memphis in Jack Flathery who dominated the Brewers in Milwaukee last week that is waiting in the wings. If Wainwright struggles again today and in follow-up starts, he might not be long for the rotation.

Betting Trends:

Milwaukee

The Brewers are 6-2 in their last eight trips to St. Louis.

St. Louis

The Cardinals have won five of Wainwright’s last six starts against the Brewers.

Bet Wednesday's MLB Games

Today’s Prediction

Not a chance I’m backing either starting pitcher today, nor am I confident that either bullpen will be able to lock down a win if I choose the right starter. Thus, I’m taking the over. Wainwright did not pitch well in his season debut last week and Guerra is a middling starter that could be posterized by the likes of Carpenter, Tommy Pham and Marcell Ozuna. The over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings between these two teams in St. Louis and is 9-4 in Wainwright’s last 13 starts versus Milwaukee.

 

Pick: Brewers/Cardinals over 8.5

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