Marlins vs. Phillies Prediction

Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies 4-8-2018 - Predictions & Odds

National League East rivals will wrap up their series on Sunday in Philadelphia when the Phillies host the Miami Marlins at 1:35 p.m. ET. After blanking the Marlins 5-0 in the first game of this series, the Phillies beat Miami to a pulp on Saturday, scoring a whopping 20 runs in a 20-1 victory. Can the Marlins salvage at least one win in this series on Sunday?

Game Snapshot with Current Odds

903 Miami Marlins (+170) at 904 Philadelphia Phillies (-185); 8 runs

Sunday, April 8, 2018, 1:35 p.m. ET, Citizens Bank Park

TV: FSFL (MIA); CSP (PHI)

Public Betting Trends

As of this writing, the Phillies are receiving 76% of the betting tickets wagered at online sportsbooks to beat the Marlins today on the money line. Meanwhile, 77% of the betting tickets wagered on the total are on the over.

Miami Marlins hoping for better pitching out of Richards

Miami had a rough night in Philly, mostly because of its pitching. Left-hander Dillon Peters surrendered nine runs and nine hits in just 2 2/3 innings of work. How bad did things get for the Marlins? Catcher Bryan Holaday had to pitch in the eighth inning. The good news is that Holaday pitched a perfect frame, including striking out cleanup hitter Rhys Hoskins on a 62 mph pitch to end the inning. It was one of only a handful of moments that made Miami players smile last night.

Unfortunately for the Marlins, they might not smile much again today. Making his major league debut, Trevor Richards was tagged for five runs in 4 1/3 innings by the Red Sox on Monday. He actually retired the first seven batters that he faced and got through three innings unscathed, but then Boston’s lineup got to him the second time through the order. Before the season, the 24-year-old boasted a 2.52 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and a 211/46 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 200 1/3 career minor league innings. Still, he had never appeared in a game above Double-A before taking the mound versus Boston on Monday. Eventually, his inexperience showed.

Philadelphia Phillies Offense Finally Shows what it's capable of

That’s what it’s supposed to look like. After almost a week of frustration and boos for Gabe Kapler’s team, the Phillies put up 20 runs last night in a death-by-papercut sort of way. Under Kapler, the Phils want to grind opposing pitchers down, eventually loading the bases and watch those base runners turn into runs. The Phillies saw a ton of pitches yesterday, drew plenty of walks and then guys like Maikel Franco and Aaron Altherr delivered with the bases jammed. Wins haven’t come easy for the Phillies yet, but they proved yesterday that Kapler’s method will work. Now we’ll see if they can accomplish the feat with any sort of consistency.

Today Jake Arrieta will make his Philadelphia Phillies debut. The man won 54 games, a Cy Young Award and a World Series ring as a member of the Chicago Cubs the last three seasons and he joined the Phillies this offseason after signing a three-year, $75 million contract on March 11. Arrieta faced the Marlins twice last season, winning both starts while posting a 2.08 ERA in the process. (That Miami team, don’t forget, still had the likes of Stanton, Yelich, and Ozuna in the middle of their lineup.) He also made two career starts at Citizens Bank Park, going 2-0 with a microscopic 0.60 ERA. Small sample size yes, but Arrieta figures to fare well today.

Betting Trends:

Miami

The Marlins are winless in their last six games versus the Phillies and are just 23-48 in their last 71 games in Philadelphia.

Philadelphia

Dating back to last season, the Phillies are 6-1 in their last seven home games and are 11-3 in their last 14 games played on Sunday.

Bet Sunday’s Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Matchup

Today’s MLB Prediction

After spending a week pitching about Kapler’s methods, even the biggest doubters inside the Philadelphia clubhouse must have turned their attitude around after the team put up 20 runs on Saturday. Even with a little bit of buy-in, I think the 20-run onslaught will give this Phillies club confidence heading into today’s game. Arrieta may have to shake off the rust but I wouldn’t bet on this Miami lineup doing much damage. The Phillies are expensive but I like them to cash today nonetheless.

 

Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -185

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